FERRARI ARE IMPLODING! How the Scuderia will finish 3rd in a two horse race
Ferrari are running second in the Constructors’ Championship, and if you told people that P2 could be under threat, they’d probably be quite surprised. Earlier in the season I went as far as saying that Ferrari had an insurmountable lead, and maybe I jumped the gun a bit, clearly. But given their strong early season form alongside Red Bull, and Mercedes’ lack of pace, the title race looked to be a done deal, but could Ferrari be about to finish third in a two horse race?
A straight shootout between Ferrari and Red Bull, that’s the picture the early season form was telling us. Leclerc won 2 of the first three races, and was second in the other and seemed to have reliability on their side. Ferrari were back and they were ready to mount a title challenge.
A different landscape
Fastforward to September and the landscape is a very different one. Charles Leclerc has been on the podium just twice since his win in Australia on race week three. P2 in Miami, race five, and he won in Austria which we all labelled as an opportunity for a resurgence. Since winning in Melbourne, his form reads: Sixth, second, retired, fourth, retired, fifth, fourth, first, retired, sixth, sixth. His results have seen him drop from first to third with 186 points, with Red Bull first and second. Carlos Sainz’s results have probably been more consistent, but he too has suffered several retirements.
What you might not realise, is that while Ferrari have imploded as we’ve become used too, Mercedes have quietly gone about their business, sitting fifth and sixth, but with immense reliability and consistency. George Russell’s excellent consistency has seen him pick up 170 points, one behind Carlos Sainz and 15 behind Leclerc.
One disasterous weekend and the table could look a very glum place for Ferrari, in fact as of recording this Mercedes have just finished one-two in FP1 for the Dutch Grand Prix, yes it’s Friday but in one fell swoop, Ferrari’s advantage in the Constructors’ Championship could be gone this weekend… Mercedes are having an awful season by their ridiculous standards, and Ferrari a good one, yet the Silver Arrows could be about to overhaul the Scuderia.
Early season optimism
All of that early season optimism, gone! But where have they lost it? Well first and foremost tactics. Their decision to pit Leclerc last week to secure the fastest lap backfired. He finished sixth, couldn’t overtake Alonso, and to make it worse he didn’t get the fastest lap. Just one of a series of mistakes the team have made. Their reliability has gone out of the window Sainz and Leclerc have retired more or equal times individually than both Red Bull drivers combined. Add in Red Bull’s electric form and it’s seen them overhauled at the top of the standings and the table could look very different with Mercedes lurking with intent.
Mercedes get their act together
It always felt a matter of time before the Silver Arrows got their business in order, and their results in FP1 are the first signs of this. Ferrari need to get some results under their belt.
Well what’s the verdict then? If you ask me before Ferrari look forward they need to look over their shoulder, otherwise it could be too late and Mercedes could be off in the distance already. And I think that’s what will happen, Mercedes are always growing in confidence and I’ll think their duo of Russell and Hamilton will see them take second spot in what was a two horse race between Ferrari and Red Bull!
