Ricciardo's F1 future in danger: Is the 'Daniel from McLaren' back?

His familiar smile was nowhere to be seen. Daniel Ricciardo looked defeated. Distraught even, it seemed, after he finished qualifying eighteenth. Slowly, doubts are growing (again) about how good the eight-time Grand Prix winner currently is? The answer to that question seems, how sad for one of the most popular drivers of the past decade: not very good anymore.

After a failed adventure at McLaren, Ricciardo hoped to rehabilitate himself at Visa Cash App RB - under the wings of Red Bull. However, the facts are rock hard: at the moment, Ricciardo is a field filler, or little more than that. This Sunday, on a day that was supposed to be a glorious return to home soil, the Australian will start his Grand Prix virtually at the back. And worse, Ricciardo will realise: hopes of a renewed opportunity at Red Bull Racing in '25 seem to be fading.

Terrible observation for Ricciardo

In what was supposed to be a hunt for Sergio Perez's seat, Ricciardo has lost his mojo again, while in the car he feels he is doing quite well. That observation must be terrible for a driver: feeling like you're getting the most out of it and in practice the opposite appears to be the case. Apart from the fact that Ricciardo lost his fastest lap in Q1 - because he had exceeded the track limits - that time had never been enough to get anywhere near teammate Yuki Tsunoda. "Then I saw, so the lap itself I was happy with from my side, I felt like I got everything out of it, and then when I saw it still wasn’t good enough, let’s say compared to Yuki," Ricciardo told the F1 paddock, as the international media gathered around him in Melbourne.

"I’m still a bit puzzled, because I know what those laps normally mean, and I crossed the line being like yeah, that was a good one, but those ones are normally enough, more than enough, and it’s still not. And then looking at the time he’s doing in Q2, I could tel you now, I can’t get seven more tenths out of it than what I got in Q1. So I’m sure there’s a bit of track evo, but honestly there’s still some things we’ve got to look at, because it’s been definitely a struggle so far."

Ricciardo's performance is a throwback to his time at McLaren

It seems like the Ricciardo from the McLaren era could be back, in which Lando Norris often easily outperformed the Australian. At the British team, his car was once turned completely inside out, to see if something somewhere - out of sight - might be broken after all. That turned out not to be the case. With the McLaren, Ricciardo was simply not fast enough to keep up with Norris. No doubt Visa Cash App RB will also use the coming weeks to closely scrutinise the Australian's car, the chances are that the problem here too really lies with Ricciardo rather than his car.

What's next is the big question? Tsunoda already showed that VCARB's potential is greater, and Red Bull's Helmut Marko was already critical of him. The Austrian had previously hinted that Ricciardo too needs to improve. That was before the debacle in Melbourne. That a quick turnaround in Ricciardo's performance is to be expected does not seem to be the case either, whoever hears him talk further: "It’s not like 'I’m like, yeah it’s really struggling here or here,' it’s actually been a pretty nice car to drive. Just the lap time is proving otherwise."

Ricciardo has to deal with blow

Sunday, starting spot eighteen. With tens of thousands of fans in the stands who bought an expensive ticket to the event partly because of Ricciardo. They are probably going to see their hometown hero trudging around far in the rear. What else is possible? "I don’t know. I don’t even know if I’ve figured out, I don’t think it’s sunk in where I start. It’s certainly painful. The only thing I can be optimistic about is the home crowd is great," Ricciardo said.

He added: "I think deep down, part of me is frustrated that I have to push the car that hard to put me in a position where I’m risking too much." And yes, for the ones looking in between the lines: that is really a mental problem.