Newey is going to be right: Mercedes remain hopeless until 2026

Mercedes have lost their way again at the end of 2023. Where Red Bull Racing keep moving ahead, the German team are sinking further and further into the quagmire. Adrian Newey gets it right: Mercedes have no chance of winning world title through to the conclusion of the 2025 season.

Eddie Jordan revealed recently that Newey was very confident. "I was at a function the other night with Adrian Newey, we cycle a lot together in Cape Town, and Adrian tells me that he feels that the evolution of what they've got at the moment is going to be so difficult for anyone to catch up with. So please, folks out there, prepare yourself either for a boring time or an exciting time, depending on whether you're a Red Bull fan or not," the former team owner revealed.

Meanwhile, it is starting to look more and more like Newey was right. Despite the regulations remaining the same in 2023, the gap between Red Bull and the competition is bigger than ever. Red Bull Racing already have more points than last year (782 to 759) with two Grands Prix to go. The competition, on the other hand, is nowhere near last year's numbers. Mercedes still scored 515 points in 2022 and are now on 382 points. With only 88 points left to distribute, there is no catching up. Ferrari fell even further, from 554 points to 362 points.

What is going wrong for Mercedes?

Mercedes' slump is especially evident in Brazil. Last year, Mercedes won in Brazil, and Red Bull missed the mark. This year, Mercedes couldn't even get on the podium. Mercedes chose after Brazil 2022 to stick to their own concept and not copy Red Bull. What a mistake. Mercedes themselves apparently didn't even understand why they had won, let alone that they could continue with the old concept.

With the old concept, Mercedes only strayed further from Red Bull Racing and has long since ceased to be the second team on the grid. That's McLaren. Customer of Mercedes. So it cannot be the engine's fault. McLaren have been smart enough to copy Red Bull.

The past two years need to be scrutinised internally. In the British media, negative reports are now seeping through about Toto Wolff. Does he, living in Monaco, still have enough hands on the wheel when the factory is in Brackley?

Wolff's attitude, in particular, remains remarkable in times when things are bad. In good phases, Wolff was an ideal team boss. Chest out, but constantly pointing out things that could be better. That's how Mercedes kept growing. In bad times, however, this turns into cursing and ranting. The car, and with it, the 1,000 employees in the factory, get the brunt of it. It's not exactly the right motivating force to work harder.

You can say what you like about Christian Horner, but during the bad period, his team was rarely blamed. While perhaps tougher action could have been taken internally, a team spirit was actually created in the fight against Renault. Then Honda was embraced, and Red Bull now have control of the entire engine project itself.

Is Allison the man who can turn the tide at Mercedes?

Newey and his team have the best concept, and everyone would be wise to adopt that as soon as possible. Ferrari and Mercedes are switching in 2024, too late, in fact. It cannot be separated from the uproar surrounding Mike Elliott. James Allison's replacement as technical director at Mercedes, but this year, the roles were already reversed. A slap on the wrist for Elliott, who has now left the team.

Allison created an excellent CV with successes at Benetton, Renault, Ferrari and Mercedes. As technical director, he had the best performance at Mercedes. Between 2017 and 2021, Mercedes won everything there was to win except the last world drivers' title. The engine had been the weapon of choice from 2014 to 2016; with Allison at the helm, the car also improved.

Still, the engine remained an important part of the Mercedes package until 2021. With the previous generation of cars, Allison and his team made the most of the engine and a low-downforce car. With the new regulations, they failed to do so. The engine is still fast, but the car does not progress on the straight.

Newey is going to be correct: nobody catches up with Red Bull

Elliott was responsible for the poor car of the last two seasons, but Allison, as Chief Technical Officer, was also aware of everything. He also gave the green light for all these choices. With him back at the helm, Mercedes still don't seem to know which way it will go. One weekend, Mercedes are there. The next, it's poor. The lack of consistency shows that in November 2023, Mercedes still don't understand what is needed with the regulations introduced in 2022.

Mercedes will opt for Red Bull's concept in 2024, but the current season shows that they themselves have little understanding of the rules. A copy may be better than their own creation, but you can see from Aston Martin what happens when you copy something you don't understand. Then, updates you make afterwards don't work.

A copy will be a step forward for Mercedes, but they certainly won't beat Red Bull in 2024. Things will have to get unusual for Mercedes to compete for the world title in 2025. After all, if you don't understand the rules by the end of 2023, it will have to be crazy if you suddenly understand the copied concept better than its creator, Adrian Newey, by the end of 2024. The top designer is probably right: no one will overtake Red Bull before 2026, especially Mercedes.