F1 Data Analysis | Be prepared for a titanic British duel in the US GP

Max Verstappen starts the United States Grand Prix from sixth place, but the three-time world champion is still the favourite. Zooming in on the sprint race, it is striking how much faster Verstappen was than the competition. Behind that, things are bound to get exciting.

Verstappen himself was laughing about it after F1 qualifying on Friday. 'At least now it will be a fun race'. The fact he said this himself obviously says enough. Verstappen knows how good the RB19 is this season when it comes to raceday. From P6, therefore, Verstappen has little to worry about.

Why Verstappen is still the favourite in America

Verstappen must ensure that he gets through the first lap without any damage. Once he can show his pace, few drivers can keep him behind for long. This is because Verstappen simply has more pace and a good car in terms of top speed. Only the Ferrari drivers can reach a faster top speed (327 to 324 km/h), but they run out of grip after just a few laps.

Verstappen will have to look after his tyres in the first phase of the race, something Sergio Perez failed to do on Saturday. If he can pick off the drivers in front of him individually, a 15th victory is in the offing. It was already apparent on Saturday that Verstappen had by far the best pace, and then you could also argue that Verstappen didn't really need to push anymore midway through the race.

Despite that situation, Verstappen's pace was impressive. Over the 18 laps (logically not counting the opening lap), Verstappen set times between 1.39.0 and 1.39.8. Not once does Verstappen get into the 1.40s. There is little sign of wear after 18 laps either. In the last two laps, Verstappen completed another 1.39.1 twice. On average, Verstappen has a lap time of 1.39.4.

Hamilton tries to keep up with Verstappen

It is in stark contrast to the competition. As visible on track, Lewis Hamilton managed to keep up with Verstappen in the first six laps but could not keep up with the pace then onwards. From lap eight, Hamilton dips into the 1.40s. He only managed to go faster than that three more times. Apart from the last lap (1.40.8), Hamilton's stint has little further decline. His average pace ended up being 1.39.9.

So, although things looked exciting in the early laps, Verstappen is half a second faster per lap than Hamilton over the whole race. Throughout the race, that becomes more and more. Hamilton does start ahead of Verstappen now, but with less top speed at his disposal (321 km/h), Hamilton is unlikely to be able to keep his former rival behind him for long.

Then the man from pole: Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque was the fastest over one lap but already expressed his concerns (rightly so) about tyre wear after the sprint race. In the 19-sprint race, Leclerc's pace slowed down. The Ferrari driver drove four more laps in the 1.39s but quickly dropped into the 1.40s. With that, Leclerc keeps pace with Hamilton for a long time, only to fall further back into the 1.41s. The decrease is huge, allowing Lando Norris to get very close in the closing stages.

On Sunday, there are more laps, but there will also be the chance for a pitstop. Still, with this wear and tear, it will be very difficult for Leclerc and Carlos Sainz to stay with the McLarens and Mercedes drivers. Up front, the Ferrari can defend for a long time. Behind, they quickly lose ground.

Duel between the Brits in America

Lando Norris noticed this, especially during the sprint race. The Briton will be keen not to get stuck behind a Ferrari again on Sunday. The McLaren driver clearly had more pace than Sainz but needed until lap ten to overtake. Only then did the McLaren's real pace become apparent.

In the ten laps, Norris drove in free air, it became clear that the MCL60 is very competitive at COTA. On average, Norris drove 1.40.0, close to Hamilton's average. However, it should be noted that Hamilton was able to increase his average in the early laps. Norris was stuck behind Sainz at that stage of the race.

So, how Norris and Hamilton compare will be very interesting to see. Leclerc may be at the front, but if nothing bizarre happens, he won't keep the Brits behind him for the whole race. From the back, George Russell and Sergio Perez will be looking to move to the front. Oscar Piastri starts from further back and did not have the pace on Saturday. The question is whether that was because of the collision with Sainz towards turn one.

In normal circumstances, Verstappen wins the United States Grand Prix. The Dutchman has the best car at his disposal, and if he stays out of trouble, he should be able to pass all the cars in front of him on the track or in the pits. Behind it will be a battle between the Brits. The experienced Hamilton and the 'young' talent Norris. It will be interesting to see how they race each other when it really matters.