Why Formula 1 abandoned Bahrain as millions hang on Qatar and Abu Dhabi decision

As GPblog revealed, Formula One Management (FOM) informed teams during the Belgian Grand Prix weekend that Bahrain will not return to the calendar after all. A race had been pencilled in for the first weekend of October following a period of relative calm in the Middle East, but those plans have now been shelved.

While Formula 1 has not publicly explained its reasoning, the decision illustrates how the championship evaluates geopolitical situations long before freight leaves Europe.

Sources indicate that the key factor was not simply whether fighting continues today, but whether FOM can be confident that teams, drivers and thousands of personnel can safely travel to the region several weeks from now. With hostilities having flared up again after hopes of a lasting ceasefire, that certainty no longer exists.

Planning a Formula 1 race is unlike organising almost any other sporting event. Teams begin shipping equipment weeks before a Grand Prix, while charter aircraft, freight routes, customs procedures and accommodation all need to be confirmed well in advance.

Any deterioration in the security situation after those logistics are underway could leave Formula 1 facing enormous operational challenges. Rather than gamble on circumstances improving, FOM has instead decided to remove Bahrain from consideration altogether.

The decision also provides a strong indication of how Formula 1 will approach the remaining Middle Eastern races. Qatar and Abu Dhabi remain on the calendar - for now, but neither event can yet be considered guaranteed.

Unlike Bahrain, there is still more time before those races are due to take place, giving FOM additional weeks to monitor developments before making a final call.

Internally, Formula 1 continues to hope that conditions stabilise. The championship would prefer to finish the season in the Middle East as originally planned, but safety remains the overriding consideration. That explains why no replacement has yet been officially confirmed. Instead, FOM is keeping several contingency plans alive simultaneously.

Portugal's Portimão circuit remains the strongest candidate should another race be required. The Algarve venue successfully hosted Formula 1 during the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning it already holds the necessary FIA Grade 1 licence and has recent experience staging a modern Grand Prix.

Another possibility under discussion is an unprecedented second race in Baku. Holding back-to-back events on the Azerbaijani street circuit would significantly reduce logistical complications compared with transporting the entire paddock to another country at short notice.

The longer Formula 1 delays its final decision, however, the fewer realistic alternatives remain. While replacing Bahrain is relatively straightforward from a scheduling perspective, replacing both Qatar and Abu Dhabi would require a much more significant reshuffle of the championship's closing weeks.

That uncertainty is also creating an increasingly uncomfortable financial reality for Formula One Management.

The Middle East has become one of Formula 1's most lucrative regions over the past two decades. Bahrain has hosted Grands Prix since 2004, Abu Dhabi has staged the season finale since 2009, while Qatar joined the calendar on a long-term agreement designed to strengthen Formula 1's commercial presence across the Gulf.

Collectively, the three events represent some of the championship's biggest promoter contracts. Although the exact figures remain confidential, industry estimates have consistently placed Gulf race hosting fees among the highest paid anywhere on the calendar. Each event is believed to contribute tens of millions of dollars annually for the right to host Formula 1.

If Qatar and Abu Dhabi were also cancelled, Formula One Management would therefore stand to lose a substantial amount of revenue, potentially well into nine figures when combined with hospitality income, sponsorship activation and local commercial agreements linked to those events.

Should races be cancelled because of circumstances outside either party's control, promoter payments may be reduced, deferred or renegotiated depending on the terms of individual contracts. That means Formula 1 may not lose every dollar associated with those Grands Prix, but there would almost certainly still be a significant commercial impact.

There is also another consideration. Abu Dhabi traditionally serves as Formula 1's showcase season finale, attracting major sponsors, VIP guests and corporate hospitality programmes. Losing that event would affect more than ticket revenue alone; it would remove one of the championship's most commercially valuable weekends.

For now, Formula One Management is not prepared to make that decision. With several months remaining before the final races of the season, FOM will continue assessing the security situation while simultaneously preparing alternative calendar options behind the scenes.

Bahrain may now be off the table, but the fate of the entire Middle Eastern leg of the Formula 1 season remains undecided. The coming weeks could determine not only where the world championship concludes, but also whether Formula 1 avoids one of the biggest commercial setbacks in its modern history.