Verstappen can forget about the world title: Red Bull shows it will simply come up short in 2026

Red Bull Racing began the Formula 1 season with a massive deficit. The gap in qualifying and races during the first four Grands Prix of this season was as much as one second. The break, caused by the postponement of the races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, gave Red Bull a chance to make up ground.

And Red Bull did just that. With substantial update packages, the gap was more than halved. In both qualifying pace and race pace, Red Bull clearly closed in on leader Mercedes, and therefore also on rivals Ferrari and McLaren. A one-second deficit became half a second and even less at some circuits.

For instance, Verstappen almost took pole position for the Monaco Grand Prix and the four-time world champion was also exceptionally strong during the race weekend in Austria. In those weekends, Red Bull seemed to have things so well sorted that it might even become Mercedes’ biggest challenger.

However, Red Bull was quickly brought back to reality. In England and Belgium, the gap grew again. While fingers were pointed at the high-speed corners where the RB22 didn’t perform well, it has since become clear this is a trend. Red Bull also couldn’t keep up with the frontrunners in Hungary and Zandvoort.

And that may sound odd to say, because Verstappen still achieved good results. He finished second in Austria, was on course for a podium at Silverstone before retiring, finished third in Belgium, and even second in Hungary. Still, the pace already signaled a tougher stretch ahead for Verstappen.

In England, Verstappen was in a good position, but the race pace of both Antonelli and the two Ferraris was better. The same picture emerged in Belgium. This time, teammate Isack Hadjar’s race pace was also better (with multiple stops and therefore fresher tires), yet Verstappen ended up on the podium. Podiums that, purely on pace, were hard to justify.

Hungary was the most shocking. Verstappen had the sixth-best pace in the entire field there. Per lap, he was half a second slower than winner Lando Norris. Yet Verstappen, much to his own surprise, finished second. The Dutchman was helped by Ferrari’s strategic choices, Antonelli’s issues, and Oscar Piastri’s retirement to reach that podium. Red Bull hadn’t suddenly found the magic setup.

And that pattern continued in Zandvoort. There, Verstappen was again significantly slower in qualifying than rivals from the other top teams, after which his race ended early. In race pace, Liam Lawson ultimately lacked a second per lap to the leaders. The picture was no different when Verstappen did take part in the sprint. He finished seventh on pure pace, ahead only of the “faster” Hamilton.

So there was no longer an upward trend. Verstappen and Red Bull have mostly finished so high in recent races due to others’ mistakes. At Ferrari, primarily strategic; at McLaren and Mercedes, due to retirements. On pure pace, Red Bull is still just the fourth-best team and can truly forget about the title this year.

As earlier this year, Laurent Mekies left the circuit early. As in China, for example, the Red Bull team principal only spoke to television before heading to the airport. This time, the written media were informed in advance by Red Bull’s communications team. Mekies is said to have had to leave the circuit earlier than planned. Strangely enough, this keeps happening after a poorer result for Red Bull. Coincidence?