One stop, three routes: how Azerbaijan GP strategy could unfold

The soft has the clearest launch advantage. Pirelli’s grip graphic puts a car on mediums 1.93 metres behind one on softs by 150km/h, with a hard-shod car 3.77 metres behind. That means the C5 is an attractive choice for drivers hoping to gain places off the line. The cost is an earlier stop with Pirelli placing the switch from soft to hard between laps 16 and 22.

A medium tyre to start keeps two options open for longer. Drivers following Pirelli’s medium-to-hard route would stop between laps 21 and 27, while those planning a late soft stint would run the mediums until somewhere between laps 26 and 32. That second approach offers the prospect of attacking on the quickest compound towards the finish, provided the soft can last the remaining distance.

Pirelli puts the average time lost to a pit stop at 19.5 seconds, making the timing of that stop a substantial consideration.

The available sets add another layer. Every driver has one new hard, but the supply of fresh mediums and softs varies. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have no new mediums, only one used set each. Antonelli does, however, have four new soft sets, compared with Russell’s two after his early qualifying exit. That gives the Mercedes pair different tyre inventories from which to build their races.

Carlos Sainz has no new softs, although he has four used sets; Alex Albon has one new soft and four used. By contrast, Fernando Alonso, Lance Stroll, Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman each have three new softs alongside a new medium and hard after early exits in qualifying. The McLaren drivers, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, each have one new set of every compound.

A soft start offers the strongest initial grip but commits a driver to managing an early change onto hards. Medium runners can wait longer and choose between a hard-tyre finish or a later switch to softs.

In Baku, the first tyre choice may determine not just the opening metres, but when each driver gets the chance to make their one stop count.