F1 Tech | How Baku's 'unique' layout could make the weekend unpredictable

The Baku City Circuit is a very unique one, which requires a specific set-up, both from the aerodynamical point of view and from the mechanical one as well: the very long straights (the start-finish straight is 2.2 km long!) require a very low downforce aerodynamic set-up, while the massive amount of slow and medium speed corners require an optimal mechanical set-up, to have a good performance in traction.

Due to the amount of slow-speed corners, the most stressed axle is the rear one, with the rear tyres constantly overheating, especially with high fuel load. Moreover, the lack of high-speed corners, where downforce is required, makes it extremely difficult for drivers to warm up the tyres and keep them in their optimal working window for the entire lap, especially the front ones, with possible graining generating as a consequence. On such a layout, as it happens in Monaco, the main grip generated between the tyres and the asphalt is mechanical grip.

As shown in the graph below, mechanical grip is generated when the road surface comes in contact with the tyre and, due to the elastic behaviour of the tyre, it gets deformed by the road profile. During this deformation, in fact, action-reaction forces are generated, and these help the tyre attach to the road, generating more grip.

That’s the reason why on such low-grip asphalt, Pirelli will bring the softer compounds used this season, the C4, C5 and C6: the softer the tyre, the bigger the deformation, which means a better adhesion and overall more grip generated. The negative aspect, however, is that if the grip generated is higher and the compound is particularly soft, tyre wear is higher.

As already seen during this season, in fact, the C6 is very difficult to manage, as it can change the overall balance of the car if it’s not in the right operating window for the entire lap. As a consequence, teams should focus their attention on finding a good mechanical set-up, as it’s fundamental to improve the interaction between the road and that softest compound, not only to generate more grip over the single lap in qualifying but especially to better manage the tyres during the race and have a more competitive pace.

On the aerodynamic side, instead, teams usually adopt Spa-Francorchamps rear wings, which provide a good top speed while also generating enough downforce to tackle the slow-speed sections in the middle part of the lap. Going more extreme with rear wings could clearly be a double-edged blade: it can help during the race, as it makes it much more difficult to get overtaken, but it can also make the car unbalanced and nervous during qualifying, compromising the overall performance over the single lap.

Another crucial aspect is how this bold choice affects the tyre behaviour during the race: an excessively low downforce wing on the rear axle, in fact, could put too much stress on the rear tyres, causing temperatures to skyrocket, as happened to Leclerc in Monza. This inevitably slows down the car, making it more difficult to have a competitive performance.

Another crucial element around this track is brakes: due to the long straights, there are multiple braking zones, like in turn 1,3,7 and 15, making it extremely important for drivers to keep them in their optimal working window for the entire lap, to avoid lock-ups and also to correctly warm-up the front tyres during the single lap. Last but not least, Safety Cars are a classic in Baku and can have a huge impact on strategies, mixing things up during the race.

With regards to the teams’ performance this weekend, McLaren is clearly the favourite, not only for the extraordinary performance already shown this season, but also for what they’ve been able to achieve last year here in Baku. The MCL39, in fact, has been particularly strong on rear-limited tracks, like Bahrain and Miami, thanks to the ability to keep the rear tyres in the right operating window, making them last longer than competitors.

Moreover, the car has also demonstrated to have an optimal mechanical set-up, which makes it the fastest in slow-speed layouts, as it happened in Monaco and Hungary. This could clearly be a game-changer around Baku, as the MCL39 could gain a good chunk of lap time in the middle portion of the lap, which would eventually prove a tyre management superiority over rivals.

The only disadvantage for them could be the lack of proper medium and high-speed corners, which is exactly where the Papaya car can express its full potential, equalising their performance to the other top teams. Another aspect that could play against Norris and Piastri is graining: being a street circuit that generates low stress on front tyres, graining is likely to appear during the race, slowing the cars down. McLaren seems to suffer this more than other teams, like Red Bull and Ferrari, and thus, this element could bring them closer to the rest of the pack.

Regarding the rear wing adopted by the McLaren duo, it’s likely that they’ll adopt the same Spa-Francorchamps rear wing, which worked particularly well on such a low downforce layout, providing a good top speed and optimal stability through corners.

Moving on to analyse Red Bull’s performance expected for the weekend, the team could suffer from the lack of high-speed corners this weekend, which are the ideal hunting ground for the RB21. Moreover, the rear-limited nature of this track could make the car a bit unbalanced towards the rear axle to better look after the tyres during the race, consequently causing understeering in the slow speed sections, as already happened at Hungaroring.

These two aspects combined could make it quite difficult for Verstappen to easily challenge Norris and Piastri compared to what happened in Monza: despite the similar nature of the track, in fact, a slightly higher level of downforce is required around Baku and there are no such high speed corners like Ascari or Parabolica, which was where Verstappen could make the difference in qualifying in Monza compared to the two McLaren, despite an extreme rear wing choice.

For what concerns the rear wing choice, the team will probably adopt the same rear wing already used in Spa-Francorchamps, characterised by a very reduced chord to maximise the performance in the straight line.

Regarding the Ferrari, this track could be a favourable track for the SF-25, as it requires no compromises: from the mechanical point of view, in fact, the maximum grip is needed, and Ferrari have demonstrated to have it during weekends like Monaco, while from the aerodynamic point of view all teams are oriented towards low downforce set-ups, and thus Ferrari could adopt the same low downforce rear wing already used in Belgium.

However, the SF-25’s Achilles heel could be the ride height this weekend. Having a bumpier asphalt compared to Monza or Silverstone, in fact, it’ll make it impossible for the team to lower the car as much as possible to take advantage of the downforce generated by the Venturi channels. This could have a big impact on performance, as the higher the car, the slower the lap time.

Particularly interesting will be their performance in qualifying, as Leclerc managed to get 4 consecutive poles on this track, even during those seasons where the team didn’t have the car to fight for the Championship. As for this year, the SF-25 is clearly lacking performance in qualifying compared to previous years, due to the difficulty in putting the tyres in their optimal working window over the single lap, making it more difficult for drivers (especially Leclerc) to fight for poles as happened before.

Last but not least, it could be a difficult weekend for Mercedes: the massive amount of traction zones could exploit the W16’s phenomenal mechanical grip out of slow corners, but this could also highlight one of its biggest weaknesses, the rear tyre management on rear limited circuits.

On these layouts, in fact, Mercedes have usually struggled to keep the rear tyres in the right working window with high fuel loads, causing temperatures to massively increase and make them lose performance compared to their rivals. This is also what happened during last weekend in Monza, as when the tyre temperature started to increase, their performance collapsed, with Russell finishing the race half a minute behind Verstappen in P1.