What qualifying says about the Azerbaijan Grand Prix

17:09, 28 Apr 2018
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Vettel might have taken pole position again, but there's still a lot of interesting narratives that developed during the qualifying session in Baku, and that's why this is the perfect moment to talk about what the qualifying session says about tomorrow's race!

P1 will be a toss-up

Sure, Vettel took his third consecutive pole, but he didn't win last race, did he? I know that Max Verstappen is largely at fault for that (even though Vettel still wouldn't have won even if he didn't get hit), but still.
We've seen today how hard it is to stay on the track in Baku, which means there will be plenty of overtaking, plenty of errors and almost certainly a safety car. Red Bull had the best race-pace on Friday, and the Bulls start from P4 and P5, which is close enough to mount a serious challenge for the win.
Mercedes also showed today that they're close(r) to Ferrari than they were in the last weeks. Whether this was just in one-lap pace or whether this will last for a whole race though, that remains to be seen.

The midfield is impossible to predict

One day, Haas look the best team in midfield, today Force India looked the best team in midfield even though they started the season at the back-end of midfield. McLaren has the reverse story of that, as they started the season well with a P5 finish, but they've now qualified in P13 and P16. Williams, who at times have looked like the slowest team on the grid, are starting in P10 and P11. And if that wasn't enough, Charles Leclerc out-qualified both Toro Rosso's and a McLaren in his Sauber! There's absolutely no pattern or consistency apart from maybe Renault in midfield, which makes it really fun to watch.

Hartley & Vandoorne are in the hot seat

The guys at Toro Rosso don't seem to be over the moon with their resident Kiwi Brendon Hartley, who has (not for the first time) caused problems within the team. There's some obvious friction between Gasly and Hartley, as the two have had an alarming amount of clashes already this season. Besides that, Hartley hasn't exactly been lights out in terms of performance either. Another disappointing qualifying for him can mean that the patience of Franz Tost might be wearing thin.
Then there's Stoffel Vandoorne. The Belgian is a lovely guy and a good driver, but he needs to pick up his performances sooner rather than later if he wants to keep his seat. He's been out-qualified by his teammate Fernando Alonso on all four occasions now and the gap between the two is growing bigger by the day. Vandoorne is in the shadows of the Spaniard, and yes, Alonso is one of the best drivers on the grid, but Vandoorne needs to show McLaren that he can at least challenge his teammate. It's getting painfully obvious that he's not cut from the same cloth as Alonso at this point. Megatalent Lando Norris could easily take over the Belgian's seat if he doesn't improve quickly.