Verstappen cannot wrap up P2 in Las Vegas: this is what he needs in Qatar

Verstappen left Brazil on 279 points, 17 clear of George Russell on 262 and 18 ahead of Lewis Hamilton on 261. Charles Leclerc (251) and Lando Norris (246) are further back. There are 75 points left across the Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi races. Mercedes has now said it will throw its weight behind Russell, which makes the numbers matter more.

The best result Verstappen can get in Las Vegas is a win while Russell scores nothing. That would take his lead to 42 points. But 50 points would still be available in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, so Russell could still catch him. The same is true, by an even bigger margin, for Hamilton, Leclerc and Norris.

The race in Las Vegas is on Saturday 21 November. The Qatar Grand Prix follows on 27 to 29 November, and the season ends in Abu Dhabi on 4 to 6 December.

Only 25 points will be left once Qatar is done. To settle second place there, Verstappen has to leave Lusail more than 25 points ahead of every rival. Against Russell, that means outscoring him by at least nine points over Las Vegas and Qatar combined. Against Hamilton, he needs to outscore him by eight. Leclerc starts 28 points behind, so Verstappen can afford to lose no more than two points to him over the two weekends. Against Norris, 33 points back, he can lose up to seven.

If Verstappen's lead over anyone is exactly 25 points going to Abu Dhabi, that driver could still tie him on points, and a tie is decided on countback. Wins would not separate Verstappen and Russell. Both have three Grand Prix wins this season, so a tie between them would come down to their other results.

The big unknown is how far Mercedes goes for Russell. Toto Wolff said the team would consider imposing team orders on Kimi Antonelli, although no preferential treatment or team-order policy has been confirmed. Wolff told media, including RacingNews365: "We have three races to go, and we are going to go full blast, and he will recover."

There is a precedent. In August, at the Dutch Grand Prix, Mercedes asked Russell to give up second place to Antonelli, and the team could now do the reverse. Any position Antonelli gives up to Russell eats into the margin Verstappen needs. As quoted by GMM, Wolff said: "We owe him that, after he has had such a difficult time several times this year."

Red Bull has already shown it would use team orders of its own. Laurent Mekies explained why Why Red Bull did not reverse Verstappen and Hadjar's positions in Brazil. Russell, meanwhile, has played down the chase, as covered in Russell plays down Verstappen chase as Wolff wants him to finish second.

All of these numbers assume the full calendar goes ahead. Conflict in the region has put the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races in doubt all year but F1 is going ahead with its Middle East plans now that the deadline to move a race to Imola has passed. If a round were dropped, Verstappen would need a smaller margin.