The extraordinary scenario Verstappen needs to beat Antonelli to the 2026 F1 crown

During the 2025 Formula 1 season, Verstappen mounted a massive comeback during the second half of the campaign. Having trailed the championship leader by more than 100 points at one point, he finished just two points shy of his fifth title in a row.

Thanks to his first victory of the season, Verstappen remains one of the five drivers who could still take the championship from Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli.

After the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff refused to hand the title to Antonelli. "He [Antonelli] scored a few more points than Lewis behind him, and I'm happy because he did the job. A championship is quickly turned around against you or for you if you have a DNF, and that's why that can't continue," he told Sky Sports, referring to George Russell's power unit issue.

At the moment, he trails the Italian by 132 points in the drivers' standings, with 183 points up for grabs this year, given that the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix do end up taking place in November. In that case, he needs to outscore Antonelli by at least 19 points per weekend.

If the two Middle East rounds were replaced with Imola, that number would increase to 22 points per round. That means that not only would Verstappen have to be perfect, but Antonelli could score at most 26 points over the remaining rounds. If the Italian finishes eighth during every Grand Prix and sixth during the Singapore Sprint, he would still finish ahead of the Dutchman.

Of course, Verstappen would not only have to watch Antonelli, but the other four drivers as well. He is currently 48 points behind Russell, who will have to take a grid penalty at the Singapore Grand Prix, 26 points behind Lewis Hamilton, 3 points behind Charles Leclerc and level on points with Lando Norris.