Long-run data suggests fierce Verstappen vs Russell showdown ahead

After a strong first free practice for Max Verstappen, it was Mercedes that surfaced during the second free practice. George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli were very strong over a single lap. The duo was split by Lando Norris, who managed a second time despite many moments during the practice.

Over a single lap, Max Verstappen was a respectable distance from Lando Norris and the Mercedes drivers. Verstappen was more than five tenths behind Russell's fastest time and didn't manage to put together a good lap on soft tires. In the long run, it looked much better for Verstappen.

At the end of the second free practice, all drivers from the top teams opted for the medium tire. Russell and Antonelli switched to the medium tire a bit earlier, allowing them to complete 11 laps in the longest long run. Max Verstappen and Lando Norris got to 10 laps, Yuki Tsunoda to 9, and Lewis Hamilton and Oscar Piastri each only did 8 laps.

If you filter out the high outliers from the list – because they are not representative of an analysis due to traffic or a mistake – then four drivers come out with the same average. Both Max Verstappen, George Russell, Kimi Antonelli, and Norris averaged a 1.16.1.

Verstappen's and Norris's teammates didn't reach that average. Oscar Piastri is close with a 1.16.6, Tsunoda seems to be in a completely different class with an average lap time of 1.17.7. Lewis Hamilton is in between. The Brit, who was the only one from Ferrari to compete, averaged a 1.16.8.

Mercedes makes the strongest impression. Not only were both drivers able to average a 1.16.5, but Russell and Antonelli were the only ones able to clock a 1.16.0 for their fastest lap. Verstappen, Norris, and Piastri didn't go faster than a 1.16.1. It's not a big difference, but it is an advantage for Mercedes on Friday.

From Friday to Saturday, Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen once again managed to improve the setup in time for qualifying. Verstappen delivered a strong performance to take second place and will start alongside his ‘good friend’ George Russell.

Three of the four drivers who showed the strongest long-run pace on Friday qualified in the top four. Oscar Piastri wasn’t among them on Friday, although his average pace was only a tenth off that of his main rivals. Piastri has had a scrappy weekend so far, including a brush with the Wall of Champions in FP3.

While Russell, Verstappen, Piastri and possibly even Antonelli could be in the fight for victory, Lando Norris has — not for the first time — sabotaged his own chances with a dramatic qualifying session. Starting from P7, Norris will need to go into damage limitation mode. He has the race pace, but overtaking at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is no easy task.