How Red Bull's dominance is waning at the hands of McLaren and Ferrari

One swallow does not yet make a summer, but one thing is clear: Red Bull Racing has to start considering McLaren and Ferrari. It's possible that their dominance could diminish, possibly with a great title fight in 2025.

In the past two years, Red Bull Racing have had a relatively easy time in Formula 1. In 2022, the team came up with a design by Adrian Newey that still had some flaws but was fundamentally very strong. This was especially evident in the development battle during the year when Ferrari was completely outclassed.

From that strong base, Red Bull could build further in 2023. In that year, competitors just couldn't get anywhere near them. Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren each appeared to be limited in their development by the chosen concept. Aston Martin, who had copied the Red Bull concept under Dan Fallows' leadership, showed in early 2023 how big that power difference was between the concepts.

McLaren and Ferrari put Red Bull under pressure

One by one, teams switched designs. McLaren in early 2023, Ferrari at the end of 2023 and Mercedes only with the car presented for 2024. These teams still had a lot to learn about their new car, allowing Red Bull to walk away into the distance.

In fact, Red Bull had such a big lead in 2023 that they could look ahead to 2024 very early. It was, therefore, no surprise to anyone that Red Bull came out of the winter break with a big lead. That lead already resulted in six pole positions and four wins for Max Verstappen.

Yet Ferrari, and since the Miami Grand Prix, also McLaren, have taken a big step forward. Both teams are still within shooting distance of Red Bull Racing in the championship. Red Bull may be ahead, but Verstappen's DNF in Australia, a 1-2 win for Ferrari, and now the win for Lando Norris have made it clear that Red Bull are no longer unbeatable as they were in 2023.

The reality is that Red Bull cannot shift all their focus to 2025. The team will have to work to fend off updates from Ferrari and McLaren. Those teams are now doing everything they can to close the gap, and in Miami it was clear that McLaren have made a big impact, just as Ferrari showed in Australia before Verstappen's retirement that it was very competitive.

McLaren and Ferrari's catch-up may come too late for a real title fight in 2024. After all, the races Verstappen won did come with a decent lead. The lead Verstappen had at those circuits has not suddenly closed. But it will make the title fight for 2025 more interesting. Red Bull's luxury position of a year ago has reduced and they will have to work harder and harder to hold off McLaren and Ferrari.