Sergio Pérez is having a great start to the season. Even Helmut Marko, sometimes critical of the Mexican, declared that 'Checo' was having his best season with Red Bull... "until now". Where everyone doubted Perez last year, he now seems to be showered with praise. What is not raining down on him, however, is a renewal offer from Red Bull - why, when he is supposed to be living his best season with the Austrian outfit? That "so far" has a lot to do with it.

Why Perez is pushing for a deal now

Well, on the one hand, Perez is not having his best season at Red Bull. Last year after four races he had one pole, and two P2s in qualifying, plus two P1s, one P2 and one P5 on race days. To this we must also add his P1 in the Azerbaijan sprint. All this for a total of 87 points. In 2024 his tally totalled just one P5, one P3, one P6 and one P2 in qualifying - the last time he had been on the front row was at the Miami GP in '23 - three P2s, and one P5, collecting 64 points through the first four rounds, 23 less than in the previous season.

In 2023 Pérez started so well that after finishing ahead of Max Verstappen in Azerbaijan he declared his title bid, with 17 races still to go. What followed was a downward spiral of bad decisions and even worse results. The mental toughness that Christian Horner and Marko praised so highly seemed to fade and the pressure got to him.

This year the pressure, if things develop as they have so far, will increase considerably. Ferrari has closed the gap to Red Bull - the Mexican's gap to Carlos Sainz last Sunday at Suzuka was a mere 7.6 seconds after 51 laps, equivalent to a delta of around 0.149 thousandths per lap - and the Italians plan to mount major upgrades at Imola that they hope will bring them even closer, which could help the SF-24s stand between the two Red Bulls, not just in qualifying, but also during the Grands Prix, threatening to challenge the Milton Keynes men for the Constructors' World Championship.

This comes just as contracts, including his, expire at the end of the season. There are also several drivers being evaluated by the Austrian outfit's management as potential replacements, with former Red Bull talent Carlos Sainz, younger and with considerably better prospects than Pérez, under the Austrian team's microscope, according to Horner after the Spaniard's victory in Australia just a few weeks ago.

Red Bull's development path, logic and precedent dictates, will be aggressive once again - just look at the RB20 - to protect itself from the evolution of its closest pursuers, Ferrari, and others who, as McLaren showed last year, could close the gap very quickly. The driver whose input will drive development is likely to be, as in previous years, Perez's team-mate Verstappen.

This has never worked out well for the Mexican, who experiences performance drops after completing around the first third of the season year after year, when upgrades start to be fitted to the car. In other words, all indications are that Perez's current performance could be short-lived. These reasons could be the driving force behind the Mexican's push to renew his commitment to Red Bull.

Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin undercut everybody

The Spaniard renewed with Aston Martin yesterday in a contract that is the Spaniard's longest in F1. His name, also by his own efforts, had been linked to Red Bull Racing, and also, according to rumours, was on Toto Wolff 's shortlist to succeed Lewis Hamilton, who will go to Ferrari in 2025. This could put everyone, teams and drivers alike, in trouble: there are too few seats, too many drivers, and Aston Martin has just undercut everyone else by taking one of the strongest drivers off the table.

What will Red Bull and Mercedes do, will they react? The situation for the Germans and Austrians may be more similar than the results reflect. Mercedes wants to cut the lead, Red Bull wants to keep it or extend it as far as possible. In terms of performance, there is only one way in F1 to defend against the rest: attacking. Both teams must make sure they have the strongest possible team, and this includes the two best possible drivers, not only for what they can do on the track, but also off the track in terms of car development, and a second top driver can help a lot in this respect.

Red Bull tried to sign Lando Norris last year, reportedly looking to improve its driver line-up by pairing the Briton with the Dutchman, thus bidding farewell to the Mexican. Now, with Norris, Oscar Piastri, Charles Leclerc, Hamilton, George Russell and Alonso all tying their futures to other teams, there is only one top name left on the cards, Sainz. Daniel Ricciardo is not improving, Yuki Tsunoda is performing very well, and he has taken another step forward, yes, but is that step big enough to merit a chance at Red Bull? If he keeps doing what he's doing, it could happen, but can the Japanese driver give the Austrian team what it needs, beyond merit? That's another story.

Relying on one driver is dangerous

Now, it's clear that Verstappen can, and more than delivers every weekend. But, the Dutchman has also made it clear that he does not plan to race forever in Formula 1, and that he will think long and hard when his current commitment expires in 2028. If Verstappen decides to retire from the category, who will replace him at Red Bull? There is currently no driver in the young talent development programme who can even come close to filling the Dutchman's shoes. Oliver Bearman and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the riders who have been tipped for a bright future in the premier class, are tied to Ferrari and Mercedes respectively.

While the Austrians find a similar talent in the lower categories, it would be natural for them to cover their backs with another great talent, and that is not Pérez. At 34 years of age, he has not shown the consistency and performance to: 1) extend his stay in F1 considerably, as Alonso and Hamilton, for example, have done; 2) or be the leader Red Bull needs in the event of Verstappen's departure. Two things are clear, Perez wants to continue racing at the front of the grid, Red Bull wants to continue winning, the problem? The problem? The latter may not be possible if the former is the case.

With Alonso's future prematurely decided, the driver market could fluctuate and veer towards an early closure where either Perez is left without a seat or Red Bull is left with no options for the foreseeable future. While the Horner-led team is confident in the capabilities of its personnel and the performance potential of its car, one thing that has been clear throughout all eras in F1, including the current one, is that only great drivers can do great things in great cars. Could it be that the reason Red Bull and Sainz are taking their time to define their future is - how well they are doing - the talks that are taking place between the two parties? "So far"?