F1 Data Analysis | Verstappen unbeatable, Mercedes in big trouble

Max Verstappen has said it himself: by having a sprint race, you know exactly what is going to happen during the Grand Prix. The sprint race bodes well for Verstappen in that respect, while Mercedes' can get ready for a very long afternoon.

The whole weekend looked good for Max Verstappen. Unlike a year ago, when the entire weekend went haywire, this year in Sao Paulo, Red Bull Racing was working on the setup for the race from minute one. Red Bull did not let their drivers run a metre on the soft tyre in free practice. Everything was tuned for the race.

In that respect, it was already particularly clever that Max Verstappen managed to take pole position for the Brazilian Grand Prix. The Dutchman was fastest in a session where weather conditions, in particular, played an important role. On Saturday, Verstappen was slower than Lando Norris in the sprint shootout but managed to snatch victory from him.

Verstappen has the best chances for the Brazil GP

Source: FIA

Verstappen did so with impressive pace. In the 23 laps (not counting the first lap), Verstappen drove remarkably consistent lap times, as we are used to. The Dutchman started with a 1.14.5 twice before systematically driving between 1.14.7 and 1.15.4. Verstappen does not seem to suffer much from wear and tear, although he also says he took it easy after the race.

How painful that must be for the competition, who are doing everything possible to keep up with Verstappen's RB19. Norris could keep Verstappen in sight for an entire race, but an attack was never in the cards. Norris had an average lap time of 1.15.2, which meant he was, on average, a tenth slower per lap than Verstappen. Especially at the end of the stint, Norris' times increase slightly.

In that respect, it is sour that Norris will start Sunday's race from sixth place. McLaren gambled incorrectly with the weather in Brazil, which saw both drivers qualify below what was possible. Before Norris gets into second place behind Verstappen, he has to pass a number of drivers. By then, Verstappen will have a big lead in normal circumstances.

Big problems for Mercedes in Brazil

It became painfully clear in the sprint race that the other teams are no match in Brazil. Both Ferrari and Mercedes do not seem to have the pace. Possibly, both teams have taken the safe bet with the setup after disqualifications in the United States, but that is reflected in the pace.

Charles Leclerc, the man next to Verstappen on the starting grid Sunday, is, on average, a second per lap slower than Verstappen and Norris. At 1.16.2, Leclerc is still the 'best of the rest'. The Ferrari seems to lack the real peak in pace, but it is still not too bad on tyre wear. This also became clear when Leclerc still passed Lewis Hamilton and came very close to George Russell.

For Hamilton, starting from P5, it looks set to be a long afternoon altogether. George Russell still crossed the finish line fourth with an average of 1.16.2, while Hamilton averaged 1.16.5. Hamilton's decline was particularly painful. In the last few laps, Hamilton drove several 1.17s and even one lap 1.18.4. By comparison, Verstappen drove 1.14.4 at the same stage of the race, Norris 1.15.4.

Although Russell drove to fourth place, that does not seem plausible for the race. Russell averaged 1.16.2, but even with him, the pace collapsed completely at the end. Not as hard as Hamilton's, but Russell could no longer drive in the 1.15s or low 1.16s either. That will be something else when there are 71 laps on Sunday. That's a problem for Mercedes.

In that respect, Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso still seem to have a serious chance of getting a good result from P3 and P4. Alonso drove an average pace of 1.16.5 in the sprint race, while the Spaniard had to pass a lot of cars along the way. The degradation of the Aston Martin was, therefore, much less than Mercedes.

The battle behind Verstappen will be especially exciting

From pole position, Verstappen almost has the win in his pocket already. The Dutchman is much faster than the drivers starting around him, so things will have to get very crazy if he doesn't win. The only driver who could keep up with him on Saturday will have to start from P6 to get back in front. P2 is undoubtedly possible for Norris, although he will have to deal with Sergio Perez to do so.

Ferrari, Aston Martin and Mercedes are suffering from tyre wear quite badly. The question is who will be best able to deal with that on Sunday. Mercedes seems to have the most significant problems, while surprisingly, Ferrari went through their tyres less quickly. How that is on harder tyres and slightly cooler conditions, we will see on Sunday.