How the dream of challenging Red Bull and Mercedes really remains a dream

When the budget cap was introduced, it was hoped that the gap between the top teams and those in the rear would narrow. Meanwhile, the cautious conclusion may be drawn that this is not happening as yet. Indeed, the differences seem to be growing further and further. Is it realistic that the Alpine's or Alfa Romeo's of Formula 1 can indeed make that leap forward in 2024?

Valtteri Bottas, undoubtedly, won't say it out loud, but how would the Finn really feel, looking at the current standings in the championship? The veteran has only managed to score six points so far this season with Alfa Romeo, which will revert to Sauber in 2024. Six points, a fraction of what Bottas hauled in during his glory years at Mercedes. The days when the Finn finished second in the world championship with 326 points are long gone. These days, Bottas is already happy - though that probably won't be the right word - to leave the circuit with just one point.

When Bottas made the switch from title contender Mercedes to Alfa Romeo, he spoke elatedly of the prospect of contributing to the Swiss team's transformation into a race-winning squad. Yes, it would be a road full of bumps, but he believed in the project. Especially when Audi signed up, making Sauber a factory team from 2026.

Bottas critical of development

"Yeah, we definitely haven't made the steps that we wanted from last year to this year," Bottas said. "And yeah, it's clear some teams made big steps but I'm not concerned that we don't have the resources. I think this team has… now that I've been part of it, I've seen it has become a lot stronger in terms of how it operates at the factory, at the races. So there's been a bit of reconstructing of the team also happening lately which will hopefully show a bit more next year. So I'm confident that everyone is in this together and really trying to get back to where we want to be and even further. So full confidence in the team."

Teams like Haas, AlphaTauri, Williams and Alpine - despite all the good intentions and the budget cap - have also been anything but able to make a huge advance on the grid. Sure, Williams already picked up quite a few points. But the sub-top? That is still miles out of reach. Aston Martin seems to be the exception, after a good start to the season. Only, the British team is slowly sinking back, simply because the top teams have better facilities to sustain the development race for a long time.

The right manpower is lacking

The smaller teams simply do not have the necessary manpower on board to outsmart Red Bull or Mercedes over the longer term. Even though the budget cap has made it less easy to compete on staff fees, what would you do as an aspiring top engineer: work for Red Bull or Sauber? Within the Alfa Romeo/Sauber team, as well as AlphaTauri and Williams, some personnel changes may have taken place, but before all these people are fully in place, the competition has gone miles away. Thus, the vicious circle perpetuates itself.

History has shown that it is extremely difficult to turn a mid-engine or rearguard team into a structurally top team. In fact, Red Bull Racing and Mercedes are the last teams that managed to turn themselves into sustained race winners from the middle of the pack. These teams did so by pumping infinite amounts of money into F1 activities, something the budget cap means is currently no longer possible. In other words, the deficit that Sauber, for example, has now, cannot be made up by a financial injection. Of course, Alpine or AlphaTauri, for example, did win a Grand Prix in recent years, but in those races, there was luck involved each time.

Alpine swims between top and bottom

Also for 2024 and 2025, Sauber - and equally for a Haas or AlphaTauri - is too far behind to be able to compete with even a team like Alpine, which is swimming a bit in between: Not good enough for the top, too strong for the rear. The French themselves have been hoping to connect with Red Bull Racing, Mercedes and Ferrari for years, but have failed in this time and again. The current internal turmoil is unlikely to have improved performance any time soon. So another lost year is looming.

"Yeah, obviously we are a constructor team, so we hope to be able to improve in the future, that's our aim," Alpine's Esteban Ocon responded. "We're not coming here just to be around and go backwards at all, that's not the mentality of the team in general. We want to push forward, we want to make progress, work on every aspect of our weekend, whether it's the car, if it's the actions or the procedures on track. I've been here for quite a few years. Every time we had an opportunity, we took it so we’re constantly working and finding out what to do with the car and the aim in the future, obviously, is to progress and go towards the front."