Analysis | Is there any space for Ricciardo to return in 2024?

Since it was announced midway through last season that his contract at McLaren would not be renewed, Daniel Ricciardo has regularly said that his goal is to be back at the forefront of Formula 1 by 2024. Ricciardo has also stressed that ambition several times in recent weeks. But how realistic is it for Ricciardo to regain a spot with one of the F1 teams?

"I do really want to come back to a top team," Ricciardo recently revealed. "To be back with a team that on a good day might go for a top 10 spot once, that's not going to do me any good. I do want to return to the track, but not at any cost. There are some conditions."

So let's start by looking at the top teams. As a 'third driver' at Red Bull Racing, it is obvious that he has his sights set primarily on a seat with that team. Max Verstappen is still under contract until 2028, so that seat is taken. It is highly unlikely that Ricciardo could take over Sergio Perez's spot next year. Perez still has a contract until the end of 2024, and the Mexican's results are currently good enough that Red Bull has no reason to terminate that contract prematurely. Should it happen anyway, it would be a striking development: Ricciardo himself left Red Bull a few years ago because he did not want to play second fiddle behind Verstappen.

Ferrari, Aston Martin and Mercedes

The choices at the other top teams are highly limited. Ferrari has committed Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz until the end of 2024 and seems to be investing in both drivers for the long term. Newcomer at the forefront Aston Martin has managed to attract Fernando Alonso by offering him a two-year contract, and as the boss' son, Lance Stroll certainly does not have to worry about his seat. Even if that were not a factor, it also has to be said that Stroll is showing his best side this season, especially given his injury. A switch to Ricciardo would not be a logical choice.

That leaves Mercedes. How long George Russell' s contract runs is not known (although it is for multiple years), but Lewis Hamilton' s contract expires at the end of this season, and so there seem to be options for Ricciardo at the German team. However, this also seems highly unlikely: Hamilton has regularly indicated he just wants to continue and Mercedes does not want to get rid of the seven-time world champion either. So unless the two sides cannot come to a new agreement after all, there does not seem to be a place here either.

A place in midfield, then?

So the top teams seem unlikely. But suppose Ricciardo swallows his pride and agrees to a slightly lesser team after all. Does he then stand a chance of returning to the grid?

McLaren and Alpine can be written off almost immediately. McLaren had Ricciardo's contract terminated early last year to bring in Oscar Piastri, so Ricciardo is unlikely to receive a warm welcome there. Alpine team boss Otmar Szafnauer recently revealed that although talks had been held with Ricciardo as Alonso's replacement, the team had ultimately opted for Pierre Gasly. Gasly and Esteban Ocon both still have contracts until the end of next year, so in all likelihood Ricciardo will not have to knock on the door there either.

AlphaTauri, as Red Bull's sister team, has a short line of communication with the Australian, but that is most likely beneath Ricciardo's standards. AlphaTauri rides in the rear almost by default and is bound to be a very poignant consolation prize for the former race winner. In addition, the team is also explicitly focused on attracting young talent or new drivers. By bringing in Ricciardo, the team would be breaking its own promises. So it is more likely that should AlphaTauri not renew Yuki Tsunoda 's contract, another up-and-coming talent from the Red Bull family will be chosen, such as Liam Lawson, Dennis Hauger or Ayumu Iwasa.

Haas, Williams and Alfa Romeo

At Haas, Alfa Romeo and Williams have drivers under contract for next year: Nico Hulkenberg, Valtteri Bottas and Alexander Albon. Logan Sargeant is doing well for a rookie. Since Williams is working on a long-term plan, there is a good chance that both of them can look forward to a new contract soon.

Kevin Magnussen had fine results at Haas last year and seems to fit in well there. Should Ricciardo qualify for his seat, however, he will have to accept a hefty pay cut: Haas team boss Guenther Steiner announced that Ricciardo was previously way out of the team's budget.

That leaves the seat at Alfa Romeo, currently occupied by Guanyu Zhou. Alfa Romeo will disappear as a sponsor, so it will be Sauber again. At the helm of this change is Andreas Seidl, who was still team boss of McLaren when Ricciardo drove there. While it is by no means the top team Ricciardo has his sights set on. However, that team also has F2 driver Theo Pourchaire waiting in the wings.

Conclusion

Ricciardo's ambition and motivation are commendable, but there simply does not seem to be a place for him at the track in 2024. Unless Ricciardo is willing to settle for a spot at Haas or Alfa Romeo, if those teams want him, the Australian does not appear to be returning to Formula 1. If his racing heart keeps beating, Ricciardo may be better off seeking refuge in other competitions, such as IndyCar or the WEC, for example. Or he could continue to fulfil his current role of marketing machine for Red Bull.