Rain at Interlagos could cut both ways for Verstappen as Red Bull chase fix

Formula 1's official forecast puts the chance of rain on Saturday at 50 per cent, with precipitation more likely after 2 pm local time. Qualifying is scheduled for 3 pm Some outlooks are gloomier. A session-by-session forecast cited by Sunday Guardian puts the chance of rain at 60% during qualifying. The official forecast also warns that "if rain does occur, it could be significant," with standing water possible on the circuit.

The last time the 2026 cars ran in the wet, Verstappen won. At the Bahrain Grand Prix, held at Sepang in October, heavy rain before the start finally delivered the campaign's first wet-weather action at its 16th round, and Verstappen went on to take the 72nd win of his career. That afternoon wasn't trouble-free. When a bug in the FIA's standard software prevented some cars from deploying power again after slowing down significantly, Verstappen was among the drivers affected.

Interlagos has been good to him as well. He won the Brazilian Grand Prix in 2019, 2023 and 2024, and won from 17th at Interlagos in 2024. Rain in qualifying is nothing unusual here either. Audi noted this week that wet weather has been a major factor in qualifying here in three of the last four seasons, and in 2024, a heavy storm pushed qualifying back to Sunday morning.

In FP1, Verstappen was his usual vocal self on the radio, complaining about downshifts and also his steering wheel, and he had similar issues in the second session and wound up parking in the garage earlier than planned. Red Bull saw too many inconsistencies in the long-run data, so head of race strategy Hannah Schmitz felt there was little more to learn from staying out.

Verstappen has played down how often he raises the issue. "With the shifts or whatever that you hear me complain about, it's just because I'm never satisfied, because I think certain things can always be better," he said.

But the feel on downshifts is not just about the gear change itself, but also the destabilisation of the car it can cause, particularly at the rear. In the dry, that costs a driver confidence on corner entry. On a wet track with standing water, an unsettled rear under braking could be the difference between a pole lap and a lap that never comes together.

This is not a new problem. GPblog has already covered his random engine-braking issue after Mexico and his call for Red Bull to sort out the power unit. What changes on Saturday is what's at stake if the problem isn't fixed.

FP3 is Red Bull's last chance to fix the problem before qualifying. Despite Friday's problems, the team believes there is "enough potential" in the car to fight at the front. However, the question remains how valuable that data will be given the changing temperatures and the possibility of rain. Sunday may bring more of the same: the official forecast gives a 40% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms on race day.

If the rain stays away, Verstappen will be fighting for pole in conditions where Friday's running suggested he is close to the front. If it arrives, he has the wet-weather record but a car he still doesn't fully trust when braking. Which of those matters more could decide where he starts on Sunday.