McLaren v Ferrari: Who has the best shot at third place?

With five races to go all eyes are on the title fight between Red Bull Racing and Mercedes, but behind them there is a thrilling duel between Ferrari and McLaren. Who is in the best position ahead of the final few races?

The state of affairs

McLaren are fighting for the third spot among the constructors for the second year in a row. Where in 2020 Aston Martin and Alpine were the big competitors, now it's just Ferrari. The two iconic brands from F1 are fighting a bitter battle. For example, we've seen both teams ahead of the other in the standings before.

McLaren are still third in the standings after the United States Grand Prix, but the difference with Ferrari is only 3.5 points. With still five races to go it can still go either way. There is a clear trend since Ferrari introduced a new engine in Russia. With this new engine the gap to the Mercedes engine from McLaren has not disappeared, but it has been closed.

Advantage for Ferrari

Even more than in the duel between Mercedes and Red Bull Racing, there are clear differences between the teams. Ferrari have so far performed well in Monaco, Azerbaijan and Hungary. Circuits with little grip or where little power is needed speak in favour of the Italians. When all downforce is removed the lack of top speed is less noticeable.

This makes the Grands Prix of Mexico and Brazil perfect prey for Ferrari. McLaren on the other hand struggles on circuits with slow corners and little grip (look at Zandvoort for example). The fact that McLaren lost points in Turkey and America will therefore hurt, because on these circuits McLaren normally could have been ahead.

Where can McLaren strike?

The new engine from Ferrari has reduced the difference between the teams on these circuits. This doesn't mean that the McLaren advantage has completely disappeared. Earlier this year, the team scored a 1-2 at Monza and victory was up for grabs in Russia.

McLaren, however, will take advantage of the Mercedes engine at the tracks in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. The fact that the slow sectors on the Yas Marina Circuit have been replaced is to McLaren's advantage. The Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia is of course still guesswork, but with a street circuit the comparison with Azerbaijan is quickly made. In Baku Charles Leclerc was on pole.

Problems with Mercedes

The battle between McLaren and Ferrari is, as has happened often enough in the past, not about the world title, but there is a lot at stake. The third place is more prize money than the fourth place. In addition, for both teams their honour is at stake. McLaren doesn't want to give up that third place in their way back to the top, while Ferrari wants to get that third place back after a couple of difficult seasons.

Ferrari seems to have the advantage with the Grands Prix in Mexico, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. McLaren also has the burden of the Mercedes engine, which has many reliability problems in the final stage of the season. However, anything can happen in five races, so McLaren cannot be ruled out yet either.