Friday Analysis | Will Ferrari pose a threat to Verstappen and Hamilton?

After 36 years of waiting, the Dutch Grand Prix weekend is underway. Home favourite Max Verstappen didn't manage to top the timing sheets in either Friday practice session, but is looking strong and is more comfortable than his title rival Lewis Hamilton who missed the majority of the days running. 

Who is best prepared? 

With Formula 1 not visiting Zandvoort for 36 years, none of the teams had any realistic data going into the Dutch Grand Prix weekend. Therefore, Friday practice running became more important than most practice sessions through the calendar. It was also important for the drivers to find the best lines on the banked corners, and to familiaries themselves with the g-forces. 

Sebastian Vettel stopped out on the circuit with a Mercede engine issue. His Aston Martin remained parked on the track for some time. The drivers missed over 35 minutes of the session and therefore track time was at a premium for FP2. The Championship leader lost out massively as he stopped out on track with a Mercedes engine issue himself. He didn't complete any running after. This lost track time could be vital for the rest of the weekend. 

Mercedes seem to be the slight favourites for pole position. Hamilton managed to beat Verstappen by one-tenth in FP1, and Bottas beat the Dutchman by a similar margin in FP2. Though Max Verstappen struggled to get a hot lap in on fresh tyres becaue a second red flag in FP2 meant that his low fuel run was distrupted. His fastest lap of the session was completed on used tyres, therefore we expect him to run quicker in quaifying. The leaderboard is slightly unclear when it comes to qualifying pace as a result of the red flags. 

Long run pace

When it comes to long run pace on the soft tyre, Verstappen and Red Bull have a clear advantage over Mercedes. It would have been interesting to find out what Hamilton would've managed on these high fuel runs. Bottas' slightly quicker time on the medium compounds suggests it will remain close through the weekend. 

However, at Zandvoort it seems unlikely that the long run pace is going to be the major deciding factor. Without any high-speed braking zones and tight corners, overtaking in the Netherlands is expected to be tricky. Some have even described the track as Monaco without the walls. The oscillations of the tarmac also increase the overtaking difficulty level. 

Should the Grand Prix remain incident free, it's tipped to be a parade. Though we will get some stunning laps with the banked corners. This makes single lap pace all the more important. All of the attention will be focused on Saturday's qualifying session. If either Hamilton or Verstappen find themselves on the second-row or behind, they will find it tricky to work their way up to the front and win the race. 

Pole position is vital. And Ferrari know that as well. They've been knocking at the door at several tracks this year, including Monaco where Charles Leclerc recorded a ghost pole position. The track has features which seem to fall into the hands of Leclerc and Sainz. And it looks as if they've set their car up to maximise their qualifying pace. 

In FP2, it was a Ferrari one-two. Leclerc set the fasest time with a 1:10.902, and Sainz wasn't far behind with a 1:11.056. There's no reason why this won't be mirrored in qualifying. It wouldn't be a surprise to see either Ferrari getting in the way of the World Championship title fight this weekend and knocking either Hamilton or Verstappen further down the grid. Hungarian Grand Prix winner Esteban Ocon wasn't far behind either.  

Manic rush in Qualifying

One thing we did learn for definite after Friday practice was that traffic is going to be manic in qualifying. With Vettel's red flag ending just six minutes before the end of FP1, we saw a massive dash out of the pit lane as drivers looked to get at least one more hot lap in. 

Zandvoort circut is reletaviely short and plays host to a lot of corners. This causes back logs as drivers search for gaps that give them the best possible chance of getting their quickest possible lap time. Already in FP1, Esteban Ocon pushed Lando Norris onto the grass in the third sector as the McLaren driver tried to work his way through the traffic. 

As mentioned above, qualifying is extra important this weekend. If one of the drivers from either Red Bull or Mercedes gets caught up in this traffic, they could easily drop out early in qualifying which will have big implications on the World Championship.