Why Mercedes' situation is not as hopeless as it seems

Mercedes are currently playing a supporting role in Formula 1, that much became painfully clear again in Japan. No longer competing for wins, let alone podium spots. Although a seventh and ninth place at the Suzuka Grand Prix suggest otherwise, there were bright spots in the performance of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton. Although there is still some way to go before Mercedes can be a factor.

The realisation has sunk in with Toto Wolff and his camp: Mercedes are currently 'just' a sub-top team, a team of similar strength to McLaren and Aston Martin. Ferrari are already out of sight in the constructors' championship, and nobody is talking about Red Bull Racing at all. That is purely in terms of the (rock hard) numbers in the standings for the world titles.

Hamilton benchmark for Mercedes

But those who looked a little further saw that Mercedes had done a better job on the track at Suzuka than in the first three races of the season. The car looked a lot more stable, there was no porpoising and tyre management was better than in Melbourne. A good indicator here is Lewis Hamilton. The Briton - especially after qualifying - was much more positive about his car than two weeks earlier Down Under.

Of course, ultimately Mercedes lack the speed to be competitive. On the other hand: the team say they know where the problems are, now it is just a matter of finding the right solutions for them. Wolff and consorts would much rather have this situation than really have no idea what is wrong. One problem, however, is the distorted correlation between what Mercedes see in the simulator compared to the reality on the track. This is certainly one of the main areas of focus for the period ahead.

McLaren rightly an example for Mercedes

Mercedes saw at McLaren last season how quickly the negative spiral can be reversed. Once the rival from Woking had clarified where the problem with their car was and introduced targeted solutions for it, McLaren became a factor of importance in no time. Wolff will no doubt stick to this. And if that fails, Mercedes will not panic. The team seems to have reconciled itself to the fact that the situation is as it is now.

Will it get better soon? Then that's a windfall. If not, a major rule change will follow in a year and a half's time. Although the exact technical specifications have not (yet) been announced by the FIA, there is quite a bit of thought going on inside Mercedes (as with any professional team) about what it could all look like and what then the road ahead could be. In any case, from '26 everyone starts again from scratch - including the now unbeatable Red Bull Racing.

Although no one should therefore be surprised if already before the time Mercedes can be found further to the front of the grid.