Sainz to Red Bull or not? Here are the different scenarios!

With his win in Australia, Carlos Sainz has considerably boosted his market value. Of all the F1 drivers without a contract for 2025, the Spaniard from Ferrari appears to be the highest-quality free agent. Meanwhile, Sainz is already being linked to Mercedes and Aston Martin, while it has long been clear that Audi sees him as the team's future leader. Red Bull Racing is also mentioned as a possible destination, but Sainz is unlikely to opt for the Austrians. Here's why.

If Sainz eventually signs for a new team, it will be his fifth employer in Formula 1. The 29-year-old has previously worked for Ferrari, McLaren, Renault, and Toro Rosso. It feels like an eternity ago, but the Spaniard made his Formula 1 debut with Red Bull's sister team as a teammate of the then-very young Max Verstappen.

Marko had no faith in Sainz

Partly due to a host of DNFs, Sainz finished 2015 well behind Verstappen in championship points. But Helmut Marko, Red Bull Racing's external advisor, looks beyond those numbers. Even then, the Austrian saw more future in Verstappen than in Sainz; the former was soon promoted to the main team, and Sainz was eventually offloaded.

Marko admitted recently that Sainz has developed just fine in the following years, but even now his words did not suggest that the Spaniard is a contender for a seat at Red Bull Racing in 2025. At least, that's the expectation as long as Verstappen is there. The dynamic between Sainz and Verstappen during their time together was - to put it mildly - complicated. Both were not at each other's throats, but better teammate relationships have existed.

Marko will be reluctant to bring Sainz back based on that fact alone. The last thing the Austrians want is for the current power struggle off-track to be replicated within the garage. On the other hand, it also seems highly unlikely that Sainz has Red Bull on his list of possible destinations.

Sainz does not want to play second fiddle

The Spaniard is tired of playing second fiddle every time, as was the case in recent years behind Charles Leclerc at Ferrari. No matter how well Sainz performed, the Scuderia always preferred the Monegasque. The proof? Sainz was pushed aside for an ageing driver—Lewis Hamilton—and, what's more, Leclerc was offered a mega contract.

If Sainz were to sign with Red Bull, he would know in advance that (again) a role as second driver awaits. Given his talent and list of honours, Max Verstappen is logically the absolute number one within the team. For Sainz, the crumbs remain—financially too. Rather, Red Bull would opt for a decent number two who does not whine about his role within the team. Sergio Perez, for example.

What if Verstappen leaves Red Bull?

Is it completely out of the question for Sainz to drive around in the RB21 in 2025? Certainly not. Everything will be different if Max Verstappen decides to leave Red Bull's turmoil behind and move to Aston Martin or Mercedes. In that case, Red Bull will be looking for the best free driver on the market, and so you quickly end up with Sainz.

The Austrian team without Verstappen is also much more attractive for the Spaniard. Not only is there more budget available for salary, but he also has a fair chance to emerge as the team's most important asset. Sainz would be crazy not to opt for the best team on the F1 grid in that case.

So don't be surprised if Sainz catches the eye soon. If Verstappen stays, Red Bull is probably not an option. If the world champion does go, a return to his first employer may beckon.