Can Verstappen still win the title? The scenarios with five races left

What looked like an impossible mission before the summer break has suddenly become a real possibility. Verstappen heads into the final stretch of the season not only confident in his own abilities and a resurgent RB21, but also buoyed by a championship table that now sees him closing in fast on the two McLarens after a clean sweep in both the sprint and the Grand Prix in Austin.

However, while heading into the Austin weekend 63 points adrift meant his title hopes relied on a complex web of results and scenarios, the double retirement of Piastri and Norris in the sprint — coupled with the Australian’s quiet fifth place in the Grand Prix — has handed Verstappen far greater control over his own destiny, even if the fight isn’t over yet.

To seal the world championship in Abu Dhabi, Verstappen would need to win all five remaining races — including the two sprints in Interlagos and Losail — while Piastri would have to finish second in every Grand Prix to keep his hopes alive.

Even a single third-place finish for the McLaren driver, with all other results as runner-up, would see both tied on 447 points — with Verstappen taking the title on countback.

The most striking case is the 2007 season, when Kimi Räikkönen in a Ferrari was third in the standings, 17 points behind rookie Lewis Hamilton and also behind Fernando Alonso, with just two races to go.

At that time, the old points system awarded a maximum of only ten points for a win. Räikkönen pulled off a historic comeback, winning the last two races while Hamilton faltered, making a surprising error in China by getting stuck at the pit entry and encountering technical problems in Brazil.

Räikkönen ultimately won the championship by a single point over Hamilton and Alonso, who finished level on points.

In 2010, the year Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull won their first world championship, the German started the final race in Abu Dhabi third in the standings, behind Fernando Alonso in a Ferrari and teammate Mark Webber.

On the eve of the race, Alonso led Webber by 8 points and Vettel by 15, and his strategy focused on keeping the Australian in check.

However, Alonso got stuck behind Vitaly Petrov’s Renault and was unable to pass, remaining trapped in traffic until the checkered flag. Vettel took full advantage, winning both the race and the championship, overtaking both rivals in the process.