Preview: The 2018 Russian Grand Prix

It really is the business end of the season now, with the F1 circus travelling to Russia and the Sochi Autodrom.

Flashback

Last season, the Russian Grand Prix was an early season race, and the scene of Valtteri Bottas’ first win in Formula One. Sebastian Vettel led a Ferrari 1-2 in qualifying. It was a bad day for Fernando Alonso, his McLaren broke down on the formation lap. Bottas produced a brilliant start to overtake Kimi Raikkonen before turn one and slipstreamed his was around Vettel on the run down to turn two.

Romain Grosjean and Jolyon Palmer collided on the first lap, bringing out the safety car and forcing them both into retirement. Daniel Ricciardo joined them in watching the race after his car had a brake problem. Vettel chased down Bottas but could not quite overtake. Raikkonen joined his countryman and team mate on the podium in third.

Expectations

It seems hard to look past Mercedes here. Lewis Hamilton is in the form of his life, and this is one of Bottas’ favourite tracks, and with Ferrari seemingly in a bit of a mess right now, it is likely that Mercedes will take full advantage and take a haul of points onto the next race.

However, Vettel will be determined to drag himself back into the championship fight. He trails Hamilton by a massive 40 points and with six races to go, he needs to start winning now. If the German wins every race between now and the end of the season, he will be the world champion, but with Ferrari’s continuous mistakes, that seems likely, although we know Vettel is capable of the impossible.

Red Bull may find themselves in a race of their own again, too fast to be challenged by the midfield but not fast enough to challenge Mercedes and Ferrari, it could be a disappointingly boring race for Ricciardo and Max Verstappen, who are in their own championship fight for fifth place, with the Dutchman leading by 22 points as it stands.

The midfield battle will be interesting, with five drivers separated by just eight points in the race to be ‘the best of the rest’. Nico Hulkenberg leads Alonso, Kevin Magnussen, Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon.

Similarly, Haas are still chasing Renault for P4 in the Constructors’ Championship, and one good result from either team could swing the battle once again.

Predictions

Hamilton is in crazy form, storming to pole and the win in the unfancied Mercedes last time out in Singapore. Whilst out of form, Bottas has history at this circuit and usually goes well here, so he can’t be ruled out just yet.

Vettel is desperate to get some points and get himself back in the fight, so he could be a factor, with Kimi Raikkonen consistently scoring good points too.

Red Bull are unlikely to trouble the podium here, but if the car is faster than expected on this circuit, don’t be surprised if Ricciardo and Verstappen are causing problems during the race.

If it’s wet, then Red Bull and especially Verstappen could come more into the frame, but we’ll have to wait and see for that.

Top 5 (dry)

1.       Lewis Hamilton

2.       Sebastian Vettel

3.       Valtteri Bottas

4.       Kimi Raikkonen

5.       Max Verstappen

Top 5 (wet)

1.       Lewis Hamilton

2.       Sebastian Vettel

3.       Max Verstappen

4.       Valtteri Bottas

5.       Daniel Ricciardo