Analysis | Bottas last again: what's wrong with the Finn?

Valtteri Bottas seems to be on a downward spiral. Sure enough, he picked up four important points for his team Alfa Romeo in the opening race in Bahrain. In the two that followed, the Finn did not get beyond place eighteen and eleven in the results. In both cases, he was the driver who saw the chequered flag last. It begs the question: what is going on with Bottas?

He did not know. All the updates brought to Melbourne seemed to be improvements, but then what made him finish only nineteenth fastest in qualifying? No idea. It was thanks to crashing Sergio Perez that the Finn was not the worst man of the day. No doubt full of good spirits, Bottas started the Australian Grand Prix a day later (from the pits), but he was totally out of place. With late crashes and a time penalty for Carlos Sainz, the final standings somewhat disguised the malaise.

Zhou outqualifies Bottas

The Alfa Romeo is not a race-winning car. Everyone knows that, Bottas obviously too. Nor is the Sauber-manufactured car is as bad as the former vice-champion makes it look at the moment. The proof is provided by Zhou Guanyu. The Chinese is not known as super talented, but he outqualified his teammate in Australia. That was not for the first time.

Due to the safety car on the closing lap, the difference on the finish line was less than a second. This distorted things quite a bit. Bottas was totally unable to generate speed from his Alfa Romeo throughout the race, where Zhou did seem to get the most out of the car. The fastest laps both men clocked up were proof. Zhou came to 1.21.819 (lap 48), while Bottas stuck to 1.22.233 (lap 46). That's over four tenths, an unacceptable difference.

Courage was evident

In a quote in Alfa Romeo's press release, Bottas' despondency clearly surfaced. He spoke of a "lonely afternoon, without much action." The Finn also confessed that it was "a tough weekend" and that he had "been out of rhythm from the start". "I am actually happy to have some time before [the next Grand Prix in] Baku, to go back to the drawing board and take steps towards competitive form again," he finished.

It is a statement that excites and invites speculation. Is he thinking of changes to the car? Which is not so bad, Zhou thus proved. Is Bottas perhaps referring to improvement in his physique because he is less conditioned? Is there a minor injury? Or is he referring to the psychological aspect that comes with racing in a Formula 1 car? Earlier, Bottas told GPblog he just feels so wonderful in his skin, now that the pressure that comes with being a top team is gone.

Always been solid

Or - and frankly it has all the appearance of this - can Bottas not do any better at the moment? Bottas was never like a super talent like Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso or Max Verstappen, he was mostly solid. Someone who had few crazy antics and took points structurally. If everything went his way, Bottas was unstoppable at Mercedes. Ten Grand Prix wins, second in the world championship twice and twice finishing the season in third place; a pancake can't do that.

The power difference between Mercedes and the rival cars was often so big that Bottas usually had hardly any problems driving his way to the podium. When it did disappoint, one of Bottas' shortcomings often surfaced: he has trouble working his way through traffic to the front. Bottas was not a ruthless overtaker at Mercedes, at Alfa Romeo he still is not. While Zhou managed to pass Yuki Tsunoda's AlphaTauri in Melbourne, Bottas did not get past the Japanese.

What's next?

Baku will be interesting for Bottas. Will he be able to recover? Or will he continue to muddle through? Especially if Zhou continues to outperform him, an old flaw could emerge with him: fretting over whether his contract will be renewed. Should Alfa Romeo no longer want to continue with him, a final farewell to Formula 1 seems irreversible.