Long run analysis | Ferrari on top, but Red Bull gives little insight

After the first free practice sessions of the Hungarian Grand Prix on Friday Ferrari seem to be the team to beat on Sunday. Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc drove fast times and were especially stronger than the competition in the long runs.

Ferrari and McLaren look fast

Both free practice sessions were 'won' by a Ferrari driver. Charles Leclerc set the fastest time in FP2 and Carlos Sainz did the same in FP1. Max Verstappen was there at the beginning of the afternoon, but had to settle for a fourth fastest time in the second session. When analysing the long runs this season we normally look at the results of Ferrari and Red Bull, but judging by Friday's session McLaren seem to be fast as well.

Red Bull advisor Dr Helmut Marko called Ferrari's pace after practice frightening. Although Verstappen was a good tenth off Sainz's fastest time in FP1 and just three tenths off the fastest time in FP2, it looks like the gap will be a lot bigger on Sunday. The fastest times were set on the red and softest tyres, so the differences we see in the top times will be most reflected in the single lap times. Over the longer runs, Ferrari could crush the competition.

Red Bull gives little insight

The characteristics of the Hungaroring suit the Ferrari F1-75 very well; with only one longer straight and plenty of bends, the Ferrari's high level of downforce comes in handy. Where Ferrari's speed and consistency looked good, Red Bull's was less so. The team had a somewhat messier preparation than the Italian team. In an attempt to get closer to Ferrari, the team tinkered with the RB18 between practice sessions. That backfired, widening the gap and not really giving a good insight into the longrun speed. From what we saw, Ferrari are the faster team, but maybe Red Bull will find something new in FP3 tomorrow and surprise us.

Rain and tyre strategy could neutralise Ferrari advantage

One saving grace for Red Bull would be if the hardest tyres are indeed found to be useless, with the red and yellow tyres being used to race. On the red tyre we have seen that Red Bull, provided the set-up is right, does not need to be particularly far behind. During practice, the time difference between the white and the red tyre was quite large. No less than 2.5 seconds was there between the compounds. The engineers had not expected this. Alpine engineer Alan Permane told Auto Motor und Sport: "That is the moment when you start thinking about a two-stopper with a soft tyre."

McLaren was the big surprise and already seemed to be fast in FP1 and joining the front, and in FP2 Lando Norris accomplished the same. The Briton recorded the second fastest time. Although the team sees Friday as a good base and is looking for more speed to keep the connection with the front, Norris thinks pole position is not possible. With the race pace, McLaren might have more luck. The aerodynamic upgrade the team took to France seems to be working well in Hungary.

As it is difficult to say anything about Red Bull's longrun pace after Friday, we are still assuming that Ferrari will be the faster team this weekend. Tyre strategy is going to be interesting, as the tyres are not behaving as expected. Mario Isola of Pirelli expects that the fluctuations in tyre performance will only get worse with cooling temperatures. The weather this weekend in Hungary will therefore play a big role. Today it was very hot on the track, tomorrow it will rain heavily and Sunday looks to be a very chilly day. It is a very tricky situation for the mechanics, engineers and strategists, but for the fans these difficulties and uncertainties will undoubtedly make for an exciting F1 weekend.