Verstappen can benefit from Red Bull’s smart choice, Norris shows alternative

Verstappen made it clear during FP1 that there was still plenty to improve. He was unhappy with the downshifting, and the steering also became increasingly heavy as the session went on. The Dutchman was competitive again in FP2, although he still fell short of the fastest time.

As usual, it is difficult to determine the pecking order after FP2, since the engine modes, fuel loads and run plans used by the drivers are unknown. However, the length of the long runs, tyre degradation and consistency can still provide useful indications of competitive race pace on Sunday.

The lap times over longer runs give Red Bull reason to continue its work with confidence. In the selected stint, Verstappen recorded an average of 1:15.501 on the mediums, while Hadjar averaged 1:15.569 on the softs. The gap between them was just 0.068 seconds, although the two drivers were on different compounds.

Antonelli was the fastest driver over a single lap in FP2 and also had the best average in the selected long runs: 1:15.421 on the softs. That made him just eight hundredths of a second per lap faster than Verstappen. It is an encouraging gap for Red Bull, especially as the Dutchman completed his stint on the mediums.

On the other hand, Antonelli ran for longer. His average was calculated over sixteen laps, compared with ten for Verstappen. The Mercedes driver therefore maintained his pace over a longer distance. Moreover, the fuel loads and the tyres' previous usage are unknown. An eight-hundredths gap in this comparison does not automatically mean an eight-hundredths gap in Sunday's race.

Verstappen’s times gradually rose over the course of his stint, as, of course, conditions were changing too, and tyre degradation played a part. He began with a 1:14.912 and finished on a 1:16.012. Antonelli also showed that a slower lap does not necessarily mean the tyres are no longer working. After dropping off, he set a 1:15.580 and a 1:15.467 at the end of his selected stint.

Hadjar’s average is close to Verstappen’s. On the same soft compound, he was also just 0.049 seconds slower than Oscar Piastri, whose time was 1:15.520. George Russell and Charles Leclerc were slower than the Frenchman on average across the selected stints. That gives Red Bull a positive picture of both cars. Hadjar began his stint with a 1:15.413 and finished with a 1:15.902.

In between, his times were mostly in the 1:15s. His run was consistent, and that is what Red Bull can be especially pleased with. That consistency was lacking at the start of Hadjar’s previous race weekends. However, the smaller gap between his first and final laps does not prove that Hadjar managed his tyres better than Verstappen. The conditions and compounds used differed too much for that. Still, his stint gives Red Bull useful information about the soft, alongside Verstappen’s work on the medium.

The most striking comparison is with Norris. The McLaren driver averaged 1:15.497 on the hard tyre, putting him almost exactly on Verstappen’s pace. His stint consisted of eight laps, so it is not yet clear how long he could sustain that pace. Pirelli has moved the tyre selection for this weekend one step softer: the C3 is the hard, the C4 the medium and the C5 the soft. Last year’s hard tyre was a C2, which the supplier said was prone to sliding. The current hard tyre could therefore prove to be a more intriguing option for the race.

That is an important information for Red Bull as well. Verstappen and Hadjar are competitive on the medium and soft, but Norris shows that McLaren also has pace on the hard. These averages are based on selected laps: clear outliers and in-laps are excluded, while later runs are not included in this comparison. Pirelli has also said that the partially resurfaced track could affect grip and tyre behaviour.

In conclusion, Verstappen and Hadjar have established a useful baseline; how their tyres hold up over a full race stint remains to be seen.