Practice analysis: Are Ferrari really contenders for pole position in Monaco?

Ferrari made a big bid to become contenders for the 2021 Monaco Grand Prix on Thursday afternoon. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz topped the second practice session around the streets of Monte Carlo with their car looking very strong for Saturday's qualifying session. Mercedes and Red Bull aren't the only two teams in the mix for the 25 points this weekend. 

Is Ferrari's pace a surprise?

The age-old cliche: Fuel loads and engine modes are unknown during Friday (or in this case Thursday) free practice sessions. But what we do know, and have known for some time, is the strengths of the Ferrari car in the slow corners. 

This boils down to the 2019 season where Mercedes out-paced Ferrari in the corners. As a result, Ferrari focused their work to remove any aerodynamic deficiencies in the winter break. Whilst the gains from this focus can be felt around many circuits on the calendar, nothing highlights it more than the circuit in Monaco.

For obvious reasons, Formula 1 didn't visit Monaco in 2020. And neither did F1 travel to similar places such as Singapore. And therefore the strength of the Ferrari aerodynamics haven't been highlighted as much as they have now. 

Having said that, Leclerc did miss 50 minutes of the opening session with an issue at the back of his car. You'd think this would be costly for any driver, let alone for a relatively new driver to the grid. But the man who was born in Monaco bounced back instantly and got to grips with the circuit straight away. 

Will Red Bull and Mercedes have to battle with Ferrari in qualifying? 

Again: Fuel loads and engine modes are unknown during Friday (or in this case Thursday) free practice sessions. However, we can make a few presumptions when looking at the data. 

Lewis Hamilton recorded his fastest lap of the session, a 1:12.074 on soft tyres that were eight laps old as the fuel load burnt down. Given that he could improve on older tyres suggests he has plenty more to give. A fresh set of soft tyres, even around Monaco, is worth a fair chunk of time, let alone a fresh set of tyres on low fuel. A 1:11.600 should be well within reach for the Mercedes driver.

That being said, Leclerc didn't record his fastest lap on fresh soft tyres either. The 23-year-old set the session best 1:11.684 on tyres that were six laps old. So perhaps Ferrari have more in their pockets as well. 

For comparison, Max Verstappen set his session best on tyres three laps old. And Sergio Perez experienced some traffic during his sprint lap which was only fast enough for P8. 

Predicted order

Saturday's qualifying session is the most important qualifying event of the season. History tells us that drivers can place their car in the middle of the circuit and make it extremely difficult, nigh on impossible to overtake in the race. Thinking of Ayrton Senna and Nigel Mansell back in the 90s' all the way to an underpowered Daniel Ricciardo in 2018. Perhaps even Hamilton and Verstappen to some extent last time out in 2019. 

It seems as if Ferrari have focused their car set-up for qualifying. One that they can potentially improve, with Mercedes having time to spare as well. And the previous race in Spain tells us that Red Bull racing have the ability to drastically improve when it matters. 

However, Verstappen wasn't pleased with his pace in the Red Bull saying the car is "quite a bit too slow" and "the most difficult weekend" of the season so far. We suggest that Ferrari's pace is true, but Mercedes followed by Red Bull will find just enough pace to get ahead. Though it will be close between the three teams.