Explained: How Mercedes can seal the constructors' championship at Suzuka already!

08-10-2019 17:28 | Updated: 08-10-2019 17:44
by Nicolás Quarles van Ufford
F1 News
Explained: How Mercedes can seal the constructors' championship at Suzuka already!

Even though there are still five races to go in the 2019 Formula 1 season, Mercedes could seal the constructors' championship this weekend already! Here is what needs to happen for the Germans to collect their sixth consecutive championship.

As it stands, Mercedes are a whopping 162 points ahead of Ferrari, and with just five races to go, it would take a complete implosion from the Silver Arrows for Ferrari to still be crowned champions.

Current 2019 Formula 1 constructors' championship standings (16/21)

Place Constructor Points total
1. Mercedes 571
2. Ferrari 409
3. Red Bull Racing 311

With the maximum points haul from a weekend being 44 points for a team (25 points for first place, 18 for second place and the bonus point for fastest lap), Ferrari's theoretical points total is 629. This would take them getting a one-two in all remaining races while also getting the fastest lap and Mercedes not scoring any points. Not very realistic, to say the least.

After this weekend, the maximum points total that could be scored drops down to 176 points, which still would be enough to overtake Mercedes in the standings.

So, if Mercedes can outscore Ferrari by at least 15 points this weekend, they will have wrapped up the championship. A one-two finish like they managed in Russia last race would be enough, as a P3 and P4 computes to 16 points less than a one-two, or 15 should they get the fastest lap.

Mercedes' task is relatively straight-forward, then. Get a one-two at Suzuka like they did last season, or at least keep Ferrari 15 points behind, and the championship is theirs! Simple, right? 

How many points do Mercedes need to win the title?

As we said previously, the maximum points haul for the rest of the season at this point is 220. Should Ferrari get all of these points, they'd be 58 points ahead of Mercedes.

So, the German works team needs 59 points in five races between Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, or 11.8 points per race, which roughly equates to one P4 finish per weekend (12 points). For reference, Mercedes' average points haul per weekend has been 35.7 points so far this season, which is more than three times as much as they'd need on paper to win.

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