Missing out on Verstappen could cost Wolff and Mercedes dearly

Just when Max Verstappen is up for grabs, things go wrong at Mercedes. Toto Wolff will be pulling his hair out if this causes him to miss out on the star of the moment. Indeed, it could have major consequences for his team's future.

Wolff stepped into Mercedes in 2013 after convincing the board to invest more in the F1 team. That investment paid off in 2014 when it emerged that Mercedes had developed by far the best engine for the new regulations. From that good engine, Mercedes benefited for years, winning eight constructors' titles in a row.

With those world titles came confirmation that Wolff's plan was right. Pump enough money into the team to compete at the top, and you will reap the rewards. It worked for Mercedes until the new regulations of 2022.

How it could go so wrong for Mercedes

While the engine can still compete for victory, Mercedes' F1 team has not been able to do so for a long time. In Brazil 2022, George Russell won another sprint race and Grand Prix in a strange weekend, but since then Mercedes has not been on the top step. In fact, they are seemingly dropping further and further back.

Whereas the team still managed a win in 2022 and finished second among constructors in 2023, the decline is clearly visible. In the second half of 2023, Ferrari and McLaren were already much stronger than Mercedes and that line has continued in 2024. Whereas McLaren and Ferrari now each have a win in their pocket, Mercedes is not even close to the podium.

The timing could hardly be worse. After all, Lewis Hamilton has already announced his departure. The star driver who managed to win six drivers' titles with Mercedes has seen enough. Ferrari knocked on his door again and when Wolff offered him only a 1+1 deal because he wanted to take into account Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Hamilton knew enough.

Wolff knows full well that such a star driver is needed to take a team to the top. George Russell is not that (yet). Russell offers Hamilton fine opposition, but was no better in 2023 over a full year than his teammate who is nevertheless starting to age. So it is not surprising that Wolff has set his sights on Max Verstappen. Not only because of his speed, but with four world titles to his name by then, also a great signboard for a brand like Mercedes.

Why Verstappen is Mercedes' top candidate

Verstappen, who doubts a longer stay at Red Bull Racing due to the turmoil behind the scenes, is not closing the door on Mercedes. It is a big brand, with the financial resources and facilities to build a car to compete for the world title. That it can build a good engine, Mercedes showed in recent years. Since 1998, as many as 12 seasons a title was won by a driver and/or team with a Mercedes engine. No other manufacturer won so many titles in that time.

Mercedes, along with Ferrari, is obviously hugely experienced in building good engines. Renault has been too slow and unreliable for years. Honda got out of the sport, lost a lot of people, only to return with some delay. Red Bull Powertrains-Ford is starting completely from scratch and are behind schedule, according to insiders.

So on the engine front, Mercedes seems the ideal move for Verstappen in 2026, but an F1 car consists of more than an engine. The regulations for the cars are also going to be shaken up in 2026, so the technical teams also have to get down to business. In that respect, it is not a good advertisement for Mercedes that it still does not understand the car in year three of the 2022 regulations, and is starting to lose more and more ground.

Wolff will be pulling the hair out of his head. Just when he has the chance to attract F1's biggest star and thereby weaken his biggest rival, his team does not give in. It creates doubts for Verstappen, who would do well to stay with Red Bull at least through 2025, leaving Mercedes with a gap.

Wolff does need that star driver. Mercedes is investing heavily in the F1 project and will not be satisfied with current performance. A lot of money is being pumped into the regulations from 2026. There will have to be a good car by then, but the team also needs a leader in the car. For that, Verstappen is the ideal candidate, but will Wolff really get him to make the switch?

This article has been written in collaboration with Sophia Crothall.