Why Carlos Sainz holds all the cards in the driver's market

Usually, the summer period marks the peak of 'silly season', the period when Formula 1 drivers announce their transfers. In 2024, the driver market for next year seems to be fairly locked even before the start of the season: Norris extended his contract at McLaren, Charles Leclerc did the same at Ferrari. Max Verstappen(Red Bull Racing, Lewis Hamilton, George Russell (both Mercedes) and Oscar Piastri (McLaren) were already fixed for 2025 anyway. Of the select group of top drivers, only Carlos Sainz's future is unclear: he is in a luxury position.

Sainz has already expressed his desire to stay with Ferrari for several years on several occasions. Negotiations between the Spaniard and the Italian team are stalling for now. Ferrari want to commit Sainz for 2025, plus a team option for 2026. Sainz, however, wants more extended security.

Ferrari prefers to build on Leclerc

Moreover, the former Toro Rosso, Renault and McLaren driver received further confirmation last week that Ferrari have more faith in Leclerc than in him. Leclerc is with Ferrari until 2029. The future of Ferrari rests in the hands of the Monegasque, and the Scuderia apparently sees a secondary role for Sainz. But with the new contract for Lando Norris and the fact that one of the most sought-after drivers on the grid is no longer available, Sainz's negotiating position is suddenly much stronger.

Ferrari have little to no alternatives to replace Sainz (if any) for 2025 and beyond. Alex Albon admittedly runs out of his contract at Williams after next season and could just be on the radar of the Italian squad. However, it remains to be seen how the Thai would do under the immense pressure from Ferrari. Previously, Albon drove for Red Bull Racing, and that did not turn into a successful adventure. Of course Albon has developed exceptionally, the pressure that comes with a tenure at Ferrari is many times greater than at Williams or even Red Bull.

Ferrari know what they get from Sainz

Ferrari understand Albon is a good driver, but whether he is ready for the Italians is uncertain. In Sainz, the Maranello team knows what they get: a stable driver who can get along fine with Leclerc and win Grands Prix. So, to keep that driver on board, Ferrari will probably have to make more concessions than they originally intended.

With fewer and fewer options, Ferrari are certainly not the only team eager to contract the Spaniard. The main competition comes from Germany: Audi. The German manufacturer will make their entrance into Formula 1 in 2026 - when the current Stake F1 Team turns into Audi - and their ambitions are big. Audi realises that the team will not be champions from day one. Yet the fact that Audi are stopping other racing classes, such as taking part in the prestigious Dakar Rally, to transfer resources to the F1 project speaks volumes.

Audi offers Sainz more security

Audi want to make the F1 adventure a success, and Sainz is a top candidate to help the motorsport brand with that. An advantage for Sainz: he is the absolute number one at Audi, knows the brand (his father won Dakar for Audi), then drives for an ambitious factory team, and his future is assured for many years to come. However, Sainz will have to drive for Stake F1 for one season, which will undoubtedly be no fun given the team's performance last season (under the Alfa Romeo name). With Ferrari, the chances of Grand Prix wins are higher, but let's be honest: how many races could Ferrari realistically win until the 2026 rule changes come into force?

Even Aston Martin and Red Bull Racing are watching Sainz's situation. Aston Martin will also be slowly thinking of a successor to Fernando Alonso, who does not have eternal life in F1. And Red Bull Racing realise they can forget about Norris. Sainz is one of the few remaining drivers who would not look out of place alongside Max Verstappen. It should be noted, however, that the relationship between Verstappen and Sainz was problematic during their time together at Toro Rosso.

Ferrari team boss Frederic Vasseur hopes to contract Sainz before the start of the new 2025 season. For his part, Sainz knows he is quite capable of demanding a bit more than a week ago when the world looked pretty different. Options galore for Sainz, who holds all the trump cards.