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FP2 Analysis: This is how F1's development races looks ahead of the winter

FP2 Analysis: This is how F1's development races looks ahead of the winter

18-11-2022 15:23
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Max Verstappen is looking like the favourite to win the 2022 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix after topping the field in FP2 on both single-lap pace and the long-run areas. But Mercedes and Ferrari will both be in pursuit and with a mixed-up top six all drivers seem to be in the mix and ready to pick up any pieces. The best sector times indicate how the car performance lies going into the winter break, however, fuel loads and engine modes remain unknown. 

The Abu Dhabi circuit might not have produced the best races over the years, but changes to the layout for the 2021 edition has improved the action somewhat. The circuit is split into three distinct sectors which provide teams with good data for the winter break. Perhaps there are some worrying signs for Ferrari, as this session seems to show that Mercedes are at least on par. Perhaps even ahead. But that will become clearer during the rest of the weekend. 

Best sector times and winter development

 
 
 
 
 
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Mercedes were on the pace in the opening sector of the lap, but Verstappen reigned supreme in sectors two and three. The two-time World Champion went two-tenths faster than anyone else in the middle sector, and another tenth faster in sector three to pull a strong lap time. Sector two is most remarkable because Perez is also ahead compared to Mercedes and Ferrari. 

Sector two in Abu Dhabi is rather basic. It features turn five, a long left hairpin taking drivers onto a straight. A slow chicane for turns six and seven splits up the two longest straights on the circuit. It's a very fast part and suits the Red Bull Racing car perfectly. Throughout the season, they've dominated straight-line speed and that is what has given them an advantage on race day. 

Sector three is much more technical and earlier in the season it would've certainly favoured the Ferrari car. The Ferrari traction coming out of medium-speed corners is high. After a year of development, that's no longer the case. Ferrari are definitely better in this sector as Leclerc hangs onto Verstappen and is only slightly slower. But what was clearly an advantage for Ferrari six months ago, is now very tight. It could also be an indication that Verstappen is able to manage his tyres better. 

Both Hamilton and Russell marginally beat Verstappen in the first sector. Sector one features the home straight and then a series of medium-high speed corners. This would seemingly showcase that the Mercedes car is strongest in this area of performance. Mercedes might be able to match Ferrari in the second sector but are still around two-three tenths down on Red Bull. Mercedes still have a lot of drag to dump during the winter break if they want to challenge for the title in 2023. 

Verstappen leads on the ultimate lap time and Russell remains in P2. But Hamilton is bumped up to the third place and thus somewhat suggests that Mercedes might now be ahead of Ferrari in car performance going into the winter. Qualifying and Sunday's Grand Prix should give us a much stronger indication of this given that engine modes, fuel loads and run plans are largely unknown in FP2 sessions.