Friday Analysis | Red Bull strong but are Ferrari going under the radar?

Red Bull Racing looked like they had got to grips with the circuit quicker than their rivals. In the first session, they were the first team to start pushing harder and ended up on top with Sergio Perez. Many laps were disrupted through various yellow flags, but Charles Leclerc ended up in P1 in the second session. Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen rounded out the top three, with Carlos Sainz being behind Fernando Alonso. It seems as if Red Bull are looking stronger, but perhaps Ferrari are going under the radar.

Sector times in FP2

Monaco's slow-speed corners favoured the Ferrari car more than Red Bull. This gave Ferrari the advantage on a single-lap pace allowing them to lock out the front row of the grid. Whilst the Baku track is also a street circuit, it's a completely different beast. 

This weekend’s track plays host to a number of slow corners, including the famous castle section during the middle part of the lap. But, the circuit has the longest straight on the Formula 1 calendar. Something that usually benefits the Red Bull car because of their power unit performance and straight-line efficiency when it comes to aerodynamics.

We expect Ferrari to have an advantage through sector two and most of sector three. Red Bull Racing should then pull it back on the home straight and therefore through sector one. The Baku qualifying session isn't the most important Saturday of the year. Out of the five previous races in Baku, pole position has only won twice, with the second place only taking one victory. On the two occasions, the winner has come from outside the top five including Daniel Ricciardo's win from tenth in 2017. 

The ultimate lap time is very important in this case. Whilst there weren't any red flags in FP2, there were brief yellow flag periods as drivers used the run-off areas and had to either reverse or spin around. The quickest ultimate lap time goes to Charles Leclerc with Carlos Sainz claiming second place. It seems as if Ferrari could be going under the radar against Red Bull with the qualifying simulations, but various tows and yellow flags could've altered this. 

Ferrari record the quickest times in sectors one and two. Alonso spoiled the Italian party with a quicker sector three time, but crucially Leclerc remains ahead of Verstappen despite the extremely long straight. This is an indication that Ferrari have gone for a set-up that really suits straight-line speed, but have also managed to avoid losing times in the slow-speed sectors. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Porpoising and flexible wings

Red Bull turned some heads on the Ferrari pit wall, and not because of their speed. Down the home straight, Max Verstappen's rear wing was oscillating at a very high rate, something that was a hot topic in the early part of the 2021 World Championship battle. Red Bull spent much of the second practice session stuck in the garage.  

Porpoising came back this weekend. With the extremely long straight, both Mercedes and Ferrari were bouncing vigorously. It even caused Lewis Hamilton to miss the pit entry line on at least one lap. Red Bull also seemed to be affected by porpoising this morning but not to the same extent. Overnight, engineers and drivers will have to work together to discover the best setup that delivers the best lap time with as little porpoising as possible. Though drivers might have to put up with it if it doesn't affect the cars in the corners. 

Porpoising was an issue for most other teams. Perhaps as predicted, Alfa Romeo, Haas and Williams rounded out the final few places on the timesheets. Hamilton failed to breach the top ten, though his teammate George Russell sat in seventh. It was a good day for the AlphaTauri drivers who were both firmly inside the top ten. 

Long runs 

It seems to have become a bit of a theme for the 2022 Formula 1 season. Historically, Ferrari have had the better pace for qualifying, whereas Red Bull’s RB18 is a better race car. Red Bull tends to have the advantage in the pitstops as well. 

Red Bull have won five races compared to Ferrari’s two. This result is reversed completely for qualifying statistics. Usually, Red Bull’s stronger race pace allows Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez to catch up and make the overtake. Last time out in qualifying, Charles Leclerc fell victim to a strategic blunder that allowed the two Red Bull drivers and Carlos Sainz to jump him in the pitstops. 

With Formula 1 equipped with new regulations for the 2022 season, cars can now run closer to each other for much longer. This opens the door for more overtakes. Something which is benefitting Red Bull more than Ferrari who have seemingly focused on their qualifying set-up during the winter. The Red Bull car seems to be able to manage its tyres better as well. 

On the average long run pace, Red Bull have a very slight advantage over Ferrari, but it's much smaller compared to most other circuits the F1 teams have visited so far this season. Once again, Mercedes are significantly off the pace and any delight felt by the Mercedes crew in Spain seems a long time ago now. It looks as though the Pirelli tyres didn't degrade significantly and therefore a one stop is expected to be the preferred tyre strategy in the Grand Prix.