How many points do Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen need to win the title?
We are in the closing stages of the hottest title race since 2016 and Max Verstappen has one of the biggest leads since the early stages of the season, albeit still a very slender one. There are five races to go, and in the past the title has been sealed by now. It looks like it'll go down to the wire between Hamilton and Verstappen but how many points do the pair need to win the World Championship?
The difference between Verstappen in first and Hamilton in seconds is just 12 points. And the equation is simple, if either of the two have a lead of 27 or more by the time Abu Dhabi comes around they'll be crowned champion as there is only a maximum of 26 points up for grabs at each race. If Verstappen was to win each of the next four races and take a fastest lap bonus point, he'll sit on 391.5 points ahead of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with Hamilton only able to make 347.5 with 4 P2 finishes. This would mean the title would be done and dusted and Verstappen would be World Champion for the first time. This is the earliest the title can be won if Lewis Hamilton finishes in the top two at each of the remaining races.
What if Hamilton top scores?
What if Hamilton scored a maximum at each of the next four races? Well he'd score 379.5 points, only 16 clear of Verstappen if he came second at the next four Grands Prix, which would mean the title race would head into Abu Dhabi. As it stands it would be hard to bet against these two finishing first and second at each race until the end of the season.
What is the earliest the title can be won?
Well with a lead of 12 points, Verstappen is in prime position to win the title, and with some of his favorite hunting grounds coming up, he'll be relishing his chances. If Hamilton DNFs the next two races races or fails to score, and Verstappen then finishes second or higher in Qatar even if Hamilton won with a bonus point, the Dutchman would be 56 points clear, and he would hold an unnasailable lead.
Hamilton meanwhile still has a 12 point deficit to overturn. If the Brit wins with a fastest lap in Mexico and Brazil, he'd lead by 40 points. If Verstappen then finished P4 in Qatar and Hamilton won, a record eighth title would be sealed. If my calculations are right that is the earliest title can be won by either driver. However, if I am wrong please let me know in the comments.
What happens if it's a draw?
With the title race being so closely fought it is possible we could face a draw. Now this wouldn't mean the title would be shared there are some factors that decide who is victorious. First up would be the number of victories each driver has scored. Max Verstappen currently has eight wins whilst Hamilton only has five giving the title to the Red Bull man. However, with five races to go, if Hamilton won four and Verstappen just one, they'd be tied on nine, meaning the driver with the highest number of P2 finishes would win the title, which is currently six-five in favor of Lewis , and if that's tied P3 finishes will decide, and so on. You're probably wondering, but Joe what are the chances of this actually happening? Well the chances of this highly unlikely and extremely confusing scenario occurring, probably has higher odds than Leicester City's 5000/1 charge to the 2015/16 Premier League title. To translate it into Formula 1 terms, I'm more likely to stay up to watch the Japanese Grand Prix next year, it just isn't happening!
What's races are left?
Next we head to Mexico a track notoriously strong for Red Bull before we head to Interlagos and Brazil where Red Bull will once again be favorites are being the main force over the last two races there. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are toss ups, we don't know what to expect, and whichever team has done the better planning, could strike a decisive blow. We close the season in Abu Dhabi and although, Max won there last year Mercedes have been strong there in previous years.
Taking all that into consideration, I still have absolutely no clue as to who is going to win this title race, and I fully expect it to go down to the last lap of the last race in Abu Dhabi.
