Are the chances of Verstappen staying at Red Bull Racing 100 per cent?

Christian Horner and Fernando Alonso seem to know for sure: Max Verstappen is staying at Red Bull Racing. As certain as those two are, however, it is far from certain that Verstappen will stay. The intention is certainly there to continue as a whole, but Verstappen's camp then has one key demand.

It has been a season of turmoil within Red Bull Racing. The whole soap opera surrounding Christian Horner has caused unrest, and with the suspended woman continuing to fight for her cause in the background, it is not to be expected that things will calm down any time soon either.

Yet Fernando Alonso was adamant on Thursday in Japan. According to the Spaniard, there is zero chance Verstappen will leave Red Bull. A day later, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said the same. According to the Briton, it is a 100 per cent certain that Verstappen will stay. Logical statements from the team principal, but not entirely justified.

Will Verstappen stay at Red Bull Racing?

GPblog have learned that Verstappen's camp sees no reason to leave at the moment. Red Bull Racing simply has the best car at the moment and chances are pretty good that this will be the case for 2025 as well. Why would Verstappen leave, especially given that there is no clear alternative either. Mercedes still haven't understood the current regulations and Ferrari already has two drivers for 2025.

Still, Verstappen's camp have one clear condition: the successful team must stay together. Max Verstappen already openly expressed that he will leave if Helmut Marko is sacked, but that does not only apply in the case of Marko's departure.

For instance, Adrian Newey and Pierre Waché have been regularly linked to other teams in recent weeks. It is logical that these individuals are being pulled, especially at a time when things are so unsettled within the team. Camp Verstappen, however, believes that right now everything must be done to keep everyone on board. Newey too.

Christian Horner is still in charge of the team and if he wants to keep Verstappen, he will also have to keep all these important people. Horner has tried several times to force Marko out of the team, but there is now a 'ceasefire' between the two camps. How long can this armed peace be maintained?

The peace has not yet been signed. Red Bull Austria with Helmut Marko and Verstappen's camp disagreed over the handling of the investigation into Christian Horner. That has not suddenly disappeared. As long as the woman continues to fight for her case, there remains a chance that it will have an impact on the team principal's position.

Stories have also come out about Red Bull Powertrains. Helmut Marko was accused of telling that Red Bull's engine project would be behind schedule. Red Bull Powertrains is indeed behind schedule. Red Bull Racing deny that.

How Horner can ensure Verstappen stays at Red Bull

Yet this is not a stumbling block for Verstappen's camp. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, everyone shouted that Verstappen should go to Ferrari or Mercedes. However, Verstappen remained confident in the people at Red Bull and it paid off. If Red Bull Powertrains is indeed at a disadvantage, it will have to work hard to close that gap. However, if the right people stay with the team, there is every confidence that it will succeed.

So this issue lies within the people who do and do not stay at Red Bull. Lee Stevenson left, but he had already been 'promoted' to the background for a few years. For Verstappen, it is especially important that the 'core' of the team stays. Marko, Gianpiero Lambiase, Newey and Waché are among them, but probably also Jonathan Wheatley and Paul Monaghan. As long as these members stay, Verstappen will remain loyal to Red Bull.

The rumours of Fernando Alonso's arrival therefore do not cause dissatisfaction. Verstappen does not care who sits next to him. Red Bull Racing do not deny to GPblog that there would have been talks with Alonso, after all, talks are held with everyone. However, the team continues to reiterate Horner's position on the matter: 'It is Perez's seat to lose.'

The whole grid is waiting for movement at Red Bull Racing. The uncertainty over whether Verstappen will stay at Red Bull Racing is gripping the whole driver market. Most drivers only want to do something if Max does something: the problem, however, is that Verstappen is in no hurry. Max is fine at Red Bull, has a contract and does not necessarily need to leave. The camp is watching everything closely and is welcomed with open arms everywhere, but that does not necessarily mean they will actually leave Red Bull at the end of this year.

Alonso and Horner are essentially right: why would Verstappen leave Red Bull Racing? There is certainly no such intention. Verstappen is keen to stay at Red Bull, hence for his long deal through 2028. However, what matters to Verstappen are the people within the team. If those leave, he will leave too. If everyone is kept on board, only then is it 100 per cent certain that Max will stay.