FOM simulations: Red Bull quicker in qualifying, Mercedes faster in long runs

FOM has made an analysis of the three days of winter testing at the Bahrain circuit. When studying the data of these tests, the necessary corrections were made to eliminate the differences due to the amount of fuel, the weather conditions in which the times were set and the tyres. The study shows some remarkable things.

FOM has created two rankings, just like in 2020, based on the available data. One ranking is about the pace of the longruns and one ranking is about the speed over one lap. And what does it show? Red Bull Racing is by far the fastest when it comes to qualifying speed, while Mercedes looks set to dominate on Sunday. A bit of a reverse of what we saw in recent seasons.

Red Bull quicker than Mercedes in qualifying

It remains to be seen whether starting position on the grid will 'take precedence' over race pace or vice versa. Or, in other words, whether the best race pace is actually enough to overtake (DRS included) on the track. From the simulations it is not yet clear what will be more important in 2021. Because of the new floor, aerodynamics have changed again which will also have an impact on the dirty air created by teams.

The fact that Red Bull is currently several tenths faster doesn't necessarily mean anything. In 2019, Ferrari was very dominant during the winter tests, but it was Mercedes who was immediately dominant again at the start of the season. So it's possible that Toto Wolff's team is keeping something in reserve.

F1 simulations winter tests

Long runs:

1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull +0''40
3. Aston Martin +0''73
4. McLaren +0''76
5. Alpine +0''89
6. Ferrari +1''58
7. Alpha Tauri +1''76
8. Alfa Romeo +1''90
9. Williams +2''00
10. Haas +2''90

Qualifying runs:

1. Red Bull
2. Mercedes +0''52
3. McLaren +0''59
4. Aston Martin +0''72
5. Alpine +0''80
6. Alpha Tauri +0''97
7. Alfa Romeo +1''21
8. Ferrari +1''28
9. Haas +1''50
10. Williams +1''95

Worrying news for Ferrari

For Ferrari it is to be hoped that they can still make some gains in the next two weeks, because the simulations are worrying. And that's putting it mildly. The goal is the top-five, but that is far out of sight. Ferrari are nowhere near the top of the timesheet and in terms of pace on a Saturday, the Italian squad from Maranello is even placed behind AlphaTauri and customer team Alfa Romeo Racing.

The coveted third place goes to McLaren, based on three days of testing. The difference with Aston Martin is minimal and it's true that Aston Martin seems to be slightly better in race pace, but the difference is so small that it's almost impossible to make up for their lack of qualifying pace. Alpine seems to be the fifth team, while AlphaTauri is currently in sixth place.