These are Verstappen's biggest challengers for the Italian Grand Prix

Carlos Sainz was the fastest man over one lap, but does Ferrari really have the best chances for the Italian Grand Prix? It looks set to be an exciting battle for pole position between Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull Racing, but once again one man can be pointed out as favourite for the race. This is the analysis after the free practice sessions in Monza.

Why drivers had so little action in Italy

Due to Pirelli's alternative tyre selection for the Grand Prix weekend in Italy, F1 teams only have 11 tyre compounds at their disposal. As a result, drivers will stay inside on Friday a little more often than they would prefer because of durability. To save tyres for qualifying, the number of stints on different tyres remains limited.

What stands out are the different strategies on Friday. Each team put on each tyre, but at different times. In FP1, for instance, Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes opted for the hard tyre, whereas the competition opted for the soft tyre. In FP2, most teams drove on the medium tyre and then did a qualifying run on the soft tyre. Only Williams did not do so. Albon and Sargeant drove their fastest time on the medium tyre. The long runs in FP2 were also completed on different tyres.

Who is the favourite for F1 qualifying?

In terms of one lap, Sainz is ultimately the fastest. Ferrari was also fast on the hard tyre in the first session, where Sainz was second by 0.046s behind Max Verstappen. In FP2, Sainz topped the timesheet and was 0.019s faster than Norris. Sergio Perez finished third by just under two-tenths. Verstappen was more than two-tenths short of the fastest time.

Verstappen therefore said after the second free practice that there is still work to be done. The setup is not quite to Verstappen's liking yet, so the team has some work to do from Friday to Saturday. Verstappen was not completely satisfied anyway, as the Dutchman would have liked to have driven a second qualifying run as his first did not go to his liking. So there is more in store.

Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull are very close together over one lap on Friday. Ferrari is especially fast on the straight and in some fast corners. The Ferrari's acceleration is especially significant. McLaren is fast over a full lap and gains time, especially in the corner combinations. Red Bull, in turn, is better at braking.

Where the teams get their speed from is also clear from the top speeds achieved. Ferrari go to a whopping 344km/h. Possibly due to the new engine in both drivers' cars. Ferrari is even faster than the RB19 on the straight. The RB19 reaches 341km/h. Given the rest of the season, you can expect Red Bull to turn up the engine some more on Saturday. An AlphaTauri, for instance, with the same engine and a much less efficient car, reached 344 km/h.

That the McLaren has to rely mainly on cornering speed becomes clear from its top speed of 337km/h. This could pose a problem in the race for McLaren, although the Mercedes engine also seems to be a little further down the line than the Ferrari.

What is the long run pace for the Italian GP?

Yet, it is clear that Red Bull still has the best chances for the race. On the long run on the medium tyre, both Verstappen and Perez drove in the 1.25s. Leclerc ticks those times in his short three-lap long run, but in Sainz's long run it becomes clear that those times are not achievable for Ferrari on the medium tyre. Not surprising, as Ferrari is asking a lot from the tyres to be able to do the lap needed to keep up with Red Bull.

Long run FP2

McLaren and Ferrari do sit close together. Ferrari has a decent long run compared to Red Bull, but McLaren's is still unclear. Oscar Piastri barely got to complete a long run in both sessions, Lando Norris does his best but does not run good times in FP2 either. In FP1, he runs similar times to Verstappen, but Norris does so on a soft tyre compared to Verstappen's hard tyre. That combined with the lack of top speed, does create a big question mark behind McLaren.

Long run FP2

That question mark is also there behind Mercedes, which managed to make a little impression, especially over one lap. In FP1, the fastest Mercedes (George Russell) is five-tenths off the fastest time, in FP2 that has risen to eight-tenths.

Still, the long run in FP1 on the hard tyre is a reason for optimism. Russell in particular had a strong stint and was faster than Verstappen, Norris and Perez who were running on hard tyre at the same time. However, it will have to be much faster over one lap for Mercedes to be competitive at Monza. Indeed, at 336km/h, overtaking in a DRS train becomes very difficult, whether you have good race pace or not.

One team that could again be a disruptor for several teams on Sunday is Williams. Like last year, their top speed is stunning. In FP2, Alexander Albon reached the highest speed at the Speed Trap, 347km/h. If you drive a Mercedes or Aston Martin stuck behind that, it's hard to get past it.

The Williams also gets better and better through the corners. In FP1 and FP2, Albon is in the top ten on the timesheet. In FP2 this is especially handsome, as the British-Thai was classified seventh then, but is the only one on the medium tyre. With a softer tyre ahead of his rivals, that is an extraordinary result.

Albon's long run pace is not up to the level of the Ferraris, but good enough to make things very difficult for Mercedes, Aston Martin and certainly Alpine. On the soft tyre, Albon drove a shaky, but at times strong stint in FP2. The main question is how quickly the tyres wear out under the FW45. We did not find out in FP2. Albon then only did three laps on the medium tyre. The times he then did were faster than Russell, Sainz and Norris on average.

What to expect from the Italian Grand Prix

It will be an exciting qualifying session at the Monza circuit on Saturday. McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull are very close, while Mercedes should also be able to make up some time from Friday to Saturday. Qualifying is very important at Monza. If you are too far away, you could just end up in a DRS train on Sunday.

Given the long run pace, you cannot help but say that Verstappen has the best chances again. Until his crash, Perez also looked promising, but that crash will have done little to boost his confidence. In the race behind, it will be exciting between Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes, Williams and Aston Martin. Ferrari and McLaren are fastest over one lap, but can they keep the tyres in one piece? Aston Martin and Mercedes mostly lack speed over one lap and top speed. Williams could be a surprise at Monza. Once you are behind a Williams, you could just be in for a tough race.