Analysis | How Red Bull are flipping Formula 1 on its head during 2021

The delayed 2020 Formula 1 season started with back-to-back races at the Red Bull Ring in Austria. Both races were convincingly won by Mercedes as the 'home' constructor lagged far behind their rivals. In fact, with just two races completed it already seemed like Mercedes had one hand on the title. Fast forward nearly 12 months, and the sport's return to the venue proved that Red Bull have suddenly managed to flip F1 on its head. 

Whatever the outcome in Abu Dhabi, it's been an astonishing achievement by Red Bull Racing to close the gap. Perhaps underrated. Even towards the end of the 2020 season, it seemed almost inevitable that Lewis Hamilton will become an eight-time World Champion. And he still very well might, but it's certainly no longer inevitable. Max Verstappen is now favourite for the title.

The British driver is still well within contention, and Toto Wolff shouldn't be believed when he says Mercedes won't further develop this year's car. Of course, the German team will put new/different components on that car between now and December. And Hamilton will continue to dig deep and get everything he can out of the car. 

Times in Styria

With similar weather conditions in the race, this is virtually a complete flip. There could've been a few seconds added had the Dutchman not slowed down at the end for a burnout. Verstappen controlled the race throughout. Maintaining a four-second gap in the opening part of the race was pivotal for the Dutchman because it prevented Mercedes from pulling a strategic move with the undercut. 

Not only does the Red Bull car have better performance than Mercedes during this part of the season, but also better tyre management. For so long, Hamilton has given demonstrations of perfect tyre management. But that wasn't the case in Austria. 

Following the pit window, Hamilton trailed Verstappen by around five seconds. But the Dutchman was able to kick on whilst Hamilton fell off the Pirelli cliff. Only Mercedes will be able to confirm if this was a result of Hamilton pushing harder at the start of the hard tyre stint, but the seven-time World Champion just couldn't find the performance on that hard tyre compared to what Red Bull could find at the end. 

The evidence of this started to ring true during the long-runs on Friday. 

Friday long runs

Traffic was a problem during the long-run times during FP2. But this table shows little delta. Mercedes weren't much quicker on the soft tyre compared to Red Bull on the hard tyre. And Bottas was slower on the white-walled tyre than Verstappen. This pace, in the end, cost Mercedes the race and something they will need to solve next weekend. The RB16B is able to get the best out of the Pirelli tyres in 2021 and could be making the difference. 

The rule and regulation changes over the winter had more of a negative effect on the cars with low-rake. This directly affects the battle for the championship as Red Bull [high rake] and Mercedes [low rake] oppose. Adrian Newey and his aerodynamic team in Milton Keynes seemed to have mastered these changes better than Mercedes. 

Helmut Marko and Christian Horner made it clear they wanted to start the season well. Red Bull Racing always develop and tune their cars well through the season, and that seems to be the case again in 2021. Except for this season, they started with a stronger car. Sergio Perez is also finding success as their rear-gunner. Honda have also made serious gains. 

Red Bull have flipped the sport on its head and all the pressure falls on Mercedes. We're now approaching a critical point in the season. Should Mercedes have a bad weekend before the summer break and score very few points whilst Red Bull remain strong, then the gap could be too much of a stretch. It's all about whether Mercedes and Hamilton can hang on as we head towards the summer break in August.