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Why Verstappen and Red Bull Racing will also win the world title in 2024

Why Verstappen and Red Bull Racing will also win the world title in 2024

09-11-2023 14:49

GPblog.com

For Red Bull Racing's rivals, there is little choice but to chase. Max Verstappen and his RB19 are elusive in 2023 and chances are this will continue to be the case in the years to come. The phenomenon of dominance in F1 explained.

You only have to look at the history of F1 and you recognise certain eras. Whether you speak of Ford, Honda, Renault, Ferrari, Red Bull or Mercedes, each era is typified by a particular set of regulations. Usually by engine regulations, in recent years increasingly by technical regulations of the car.

An era is often triggered by a new regulation. In the early years, this was mostly about the engine. What kind of engine was in the Formula 1 car and what requirements it had to meet. Based on those changing requirements, a new engine supplier often emerged.

Ford was the first engine manufacturer to win almost every world title between 1968 and 1982. This was followed by Honda with Williams and McLaren, after which Renault won world titles with Benetton and Williams.

How dominance in F1 emerges

Perhaps the most famous era is that of Ferrari. At the hand of Jean Todt, a star team was created. Michael Schumacher in the car, Ross Brawn as technical director and Rory Byrne as his right-hand man. It took a while, but in 1999 there was the first world title and until 2004 Ferrari was unstoppable. Until the rules were changed.

With some rule changes, a dominant period still continues, but with major adjustments, it is often a new party that seizes power. In 2010, that was Red Bull Racing. BrawnGP had just outsmarted Adrian Newey in 2009, but a year later Newey had again built the best car and Red Bull dominated with Renault. The tide turned in 2014 with the new engine regulations, which were best understood by Mercedes.

In F1, if you have an advantage in terms of engine or car, it's quite doable to maintain that lead. Competitors need time to understand what they are behind on. For example, it took Honda five years to build an engine equivalent to Mercedes'. Ferrari had to work on engine reliability during those years (and still does now).

You can close that lead by working hard yourself, but also by hijacking personnel from the top team. There are always people on the second and third rows who are only too happy to take a higher position with another team. So the engine manufacturers and also the F1 teams themselves are getting closer together. But it takes time.

The engines are pretty much the same in 2023, although the Renault engine is still a bit behind. The biggest difference right now is being made with the new technical regulations for the car. These were completely overturned in 2022, and as always, one was the smartest: Adrian Newey and Red Bull Racing.

How Red Bull became dominant in Formula 1

Starting with a head start is a big advantage. One you seem to have understood the rules better than the rest and that builds confidence, but the lead also has another advantage. One you can focus on the next year more quickly in a season, which usually keeps you one step ahead of the competition.

Between 2014 and 2020, for instance, Mercedes always stayed a step ahead of its rivals. Every year a new rabbit would come out of Mercedes' top hat. At the end of the year, the competition thought they had closed the gap, only to come home cold at the winter test. Such a situation Red Bull is now trying to emulate.

Indeed, with the car, it has a bizarre advantage. Nineteen of the 20 GPs it has run have already been won by Red Bull and there is a good chance that the last two races will also fall to Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez. From day one, the RB19 was already much stronger than the competition, so this car did not really need further development.

Why Red Bull will continue to take world titles in 2024

All this focus has allowed Red Bull to focus on 2024. The RB20 should become Red Bull's new flagship car. The competition still hasn't caught on in 2023, so assume that won't be the case in early 2024 either. Newey knows what he is doing, where at Mercedes they still don't understand their own car.

McLaren is perhaps the team that will come closest to Red Bull, but even the team from Woking is not quite there yet. In 2023, there have been many updates to the cars of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. This has taken time and money. Time and money that Red Bull put into the RB20. As McLaren, you then have to perform half a miracle if you want to suddenly be there in 2024.

And so for 2024, all eyes are on Red Bull Racing. Red Bull is the only one who can make the 2024 F1 season exciting by choosing a new driver duo. Everyone knows by now that Max Verstappen will beat his teammate, especially now that it is Sergio Perez. A new challenge would be nice for the fans, although everyone also knows that too much battle is never good for an F1 team and so Red Bull will not just put someone like Fernando Alonso next to Verstappen.