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The provisional ranking after the F1 winter test in Bahrain
The F1 winter test is over and so it is time to take stock. Which teams came out of the break well and for whom is there still a lot of homework to do ahead of the Bahrain Grand Prix? Read how all the teams are doing here.
Red Bull Racing
With a 1.30.350, Sergio Perez closed the near-perfect week of testing for Red Bull Racing. The team completed a total of 413 laps, with the biggest pain point being the oil leak. The car otherwise proved reliable and very fast. Both Perez and Max Verstappen were the fastest on track at the time when competitors were running at the same time and on the same tyre. Red Bull was already ahead of the competition in 2022 and it does not seem to have given it away despite the penalty in wind tunnel and CFD time.
Ferrari
Led by Frederic Vasseur, the Italian racing stable managed to hide well during the winter test. The car, still designed under the direction of Mattia Binotto, seems especially fast over one lap as was also the case last year. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz both came to a 1.31.0. How the longruns are remains to be seen. Both Red Bull and Mercedes noted that Ferrari suffered remarkably from tyre wear. That could play tricks on the team, especially during the race in Bahrain, if it is not solved by then.
Mercedes
Mercedes crept closer to Ferrari and Red Bull Racing during 2022, but in Abu Dhabi last year it became clear once again that there was still a gap between the number three and the top two. So Mercedes needed a miracle to close that in one winter, but that miracle does not seem to be coming. On a softer set of tyres, Lewis Hamilton did not match Sergio Perez's time. Indeed, he came almost four-tenths short. George Russell's stalling did not help boost confidence either and Toto Wolff also made it clear that they are not there yet. It may be the ultimate form of sandbagging, but it is likely that Mercedes will come up short again in 2023. And that is not surprising, because in 2022 they spent a lot of money on fixing and understanding porpoising before it could focus on making the car better. That Ferrari and Red Bull are still ahead as a result is only natural.
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Aston Martin
The surprise of the winter test is Aston Martin. With technical director Dan Fallows, the way up seems to have finally begun. Especially when Fernando Alonso gets behind the wheel, the car seems instantly fast. Reliability could still be better. The British team only drove more laps than Alpine and McLaren, but the speed is definitely there. Some even think Aston Martin could make an attack on Mercedes, but that still seems a bit too high considering Alonso's final fast runs on Saturday. Given the gap in 2022, that would also be a miracle if it succeeds.
Alpine
Alpine should be in the spot above, but its particularly invisible winter test is not a good sign. Of course, the French racing stable stresses that its focus is on ticking off a programme, but so does everyone else. Alpine was the fourth team on the grid in 2022, so it seems unlikely that they would suddenly drop out altogether, but with only 353 laps on the clock and a fastest time of 1.32.762, you can't exactly speak of a team that's going to attack the top three for a while. Maybe Alpine has been hiding very well, but it seems more likely that they are still searching and that Aston Martin can take advantage of that.
Alfa Romeo
As in 2022, Alfa Romeo could also come out very strong in 2023. The racing stable that lost its team boss to Ferrari has nevertheless managed to build another reliable car and, above all, a fast one. In 2022, the team was unable to keep up with other teams' developments during the season, but by early 2023 it looks to be right back on top. If the minor reliability issues are resolved, it might be able to take advantage of flaws at Alpine and McLaren.
Haas
Ferrari's second customer team also performed very well in Bahrain. Kevin Magnussen scored fifth place on his return to Bahrain last year, now the Dane was also very fast again in the winter test. Besides, the VF-23 is very reliable (415 laps) and the team hardly had any major problems. The American racing stable could also benefit from mistakes at the larger teams at the start of this season.
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McLaren
At the moment, things are not looking good at McLaren. For the second year in a row, the Woking-based team arrives in Bahrain with a car that does not work. Back in November, the team knew it had gone down the wrong path and technical director James Key may be held responsible for that. It is not good enough for such a big brand to make such a blunder in the winter test. The 2022 car was good enough for fifth place among constructors, right now Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri can hope to score points at the first race.
AlphaTauri
It was a remarkable test for AlphaTauri, which drove the most laps of all teams over the three days (456). Yuki Tsunoda ended the test week with a 1.31.261, but the stable of rookie Nyck de Vries was never convincing. The car looks cumbersome and there are few interesting details on it compared to other teams.
Williams
For Williams, the F1 winter test in Bahrain was the best in years. It drove the most laps (439) after AlphaTauri and was able to collect a lot of data. However, the speed was not top notch and at Williams it is also still a question of who will set the technical lines. Indeed, a replacement for the departed technical director François-Xavier Demaison has not yet been appointed. Still, there is hope for Williams and newly appointed team boss James Vowles. Indeed, this test offers perspective.
The ranking after the winter test in Bahrain
Last year there was a clear top two, with Red Bull dominating in the second half of the season. The team seems to have continued that line, leaving Ferrari to chase. The two teams are not far apart, so Ferrari could just win in Bahrain as it did last year.
That does not seem to be the case for Mercedes, which will find itself in no man's land just like in 2022. The team is likely to be too fast for the sub-toppers again, but too slow to compete with Red Bull Racing and Ferrari every weekend. Given the winter test, the German racing stable seems more likely to have to look behind Fernando Alonso, rather than forward.
The sub-top currently consists of Aston Martin, Alpine and Alfa Romeo. Alpine had the best car in 2022 but was now very invisible. Aston Martin came out of the winter test as a dangerous outsider, but it does have only one seriously competitive driver. Alfa Romeo has also started strongly again.
The middle order is a lot bigger this year. Indeed, none of the other teams really stands out or sinks below it. After Bahrain, out of this group, Haas looks to be in the best position and Guenther Steiner will be hoping to step up to the sub-top even. However, the times over one lap do not seem to suggest that yet.
McLaren has taken the biggest hit, but is the team with the resources (and drivers) to return to the sub-top. It did just that in 2022. AlphaTauri drove a good test, but it does not seem to have a really fast car. Reliability is one thing, but can Tsunoda and De Vries actually score points?
For Williams, it is nice to see that the car is reliable and also reasonably fast. The team could invariably be entered at the bottom in recent years. Now it is too, but in the group with Haas, McLaren and AlphaTauri. Of the four, Williams still seems the least, which is not surprising considering where they come from, but an upward trend is visible and that is positive.
