Max Verstappen has struck an important blow with his victory in the United States. With Mexico and Brazil come two circuits that are in Red Bull Racing's favour. If Verstappen can win those two, the world title will be very close. We calculate what Verstappen needs to win the world title after those two victories.

Surprising win in America

If Verstappen can take pole while ill and win in America, where Mercedes has always ruled the roost, then Verstappen is certainly the favourite for Mexico and Brazil. Verstappen was dominant in Mexico before he had a strong car, and in recent years Interlagos has increasingly proved a Red Bull track as well.

At both tracks, the altitude at which the race is held plays an important role. Just like in Austria earlier this year, Red Bull and Honda perform much better in the thin air than Mercedes. Of course, the Dutchman still needs to take pole and victory, but what if it happens? Nico Rosberg once calculated his world title in such a way that he needed four second places in the final races to become champion. Can Verstappen do the same against Hamilton?

Wins in Mexico and Brazil

First up is Mexico. If Verstappen takes pole there and wins the race, he will have at least six points on Lewis Hamilton. This is in case the Briton finishes second and sets the fastest lap. This is the least favourable scenario for Max and we will keep it that way for the other races.

In Brazil, however, it is a little trickier as we are also dealing with a sprint race. In this case, a pole will earn Verstappen three more points if he can claim it in the sprint race on Saturday. Until now the race after the sprint-race always ended in a crash between Hamilton and Verstappen, but that can't be predicted. 

In the case of Brazil, Verstappen could gain at least seven points by winning on pole. In this case we also assume that Hamilton will finish second in the sprint race, the normal race and also takes the point for the fastest lap. In this scenario Verstappen has increased his lead by 13 points and the gap between the two title rivals is 25 points.

Verstappen can start calculating

With three 'normal' race weekends remaining, Hamilton only has 78 points left to earn. This means that 53 points from the last three races is enough for Verstappen to become world champion. In case of a tie in points the Dutchman will also win the world title, because he will have ten victories that Hamilton will no longer be able to match.

The fast calculators have already seen it: 53 points in three races for Verstappen without needing a victory or a point for the fastest lap. Three second places in the last three races would already give him 54 points, which would give Verstappen the world title. However, the gap is marginal.

The role of the second placed drivers

Everything depends on the performance of Hamilton and Verstappen. If Verstappen sets the fastest lap for once, the margin is already two points wider. In the current scenario Hamilton sets the fastest lap in every race. A retirement for one or even both of them is still a possibility.

The biggest role is played by Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas. At the moment we are only counting on the two title rivals, but Perez finishing second in Mexico and/or Brazil could provide Verstappen with an extra buffer. Bottas, on the other hand, could do the same for Hamilton in the final three races, if Mercedes were really that fast there.