Preview | Will Hamilton or Verstappen be favoured by predicted rainfall?

The 2020 Turkish Grand Prix provided a spectacular race due to the slippery tarmac, cold temperature and rain. Will the 2021 edition also be such a spectacle and what is the relationship between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen? Find out in this preview from GPblog.

Intercity Istanbul Park

The circuit in Turkey is a popular track among fans and drivers. Hermann Tilke's masterpiece is called Intercity Istanbul Park and has a length of 5.338km. The circuit has 14 turns, of which turn 8 is the most prominent. This long turn is loved by the drivers, although there is a lot of pressure on the neck.

Turkish GP

In 2005 the Turkish circuit was used for the first time during the first Turkish Grand Prix. The race was an instant success, with Kimi Raikkonen winning followed by title rival Fernando Alonso. However, the track would become the domain of Felipe Massa, who took pole and victory in every single race between 2006 and 2008 and is the current record holder in Turkey.

Although the drivers and fans were crazy about this circuit, it soon disappeared from the Formula 1 calendar after seven races. The organisers pointed at the high prices Bernie Ecclestone asked for a race, but the Ecclestone pointed at the low revenues the Turkish promoters managed to generate.

After a long absence, Turkey came back into the picture in 2020. The Turkish organisation was open to claim a temporary place on the calendar during the 'coronavirus season'. It was an instant success. Although there were many complaints about the new tarmac, the race was a huge spectacle. Lance Stroll took pole and Lewis Hamilton drove to a historic victory and seventh world title.

The Turkish Grand Prix would have been held earlier in 2021, but the circuit that was initially supposed to replace the Canadian GP had to deal with the country's corona rules. Turkey was on the United Kingdom's red list, making it impossible for F1 to race here. However, with the cancellation of the Australian GP, Turkey was given a second chance and is now actually on the calendar.

Formula 1 in 2021

Formula 1 is the talk of the town again in 2021 and that is mainly because of the title fight between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. Seven races before the end of the season, the two are only two points apart and that is keeping things busy. Red Bull Racing and Mercedes alternate in terms of track favourites, but it could be close in Turkey.

It's not just up front, but down behind as well. A win for Daniel Ricciardo in Monza and the near victory for Lando Norris in Russia show that McLaren has come closer to the top. Ferrari has also managed to reduce the gap, making it more difficult for the top teams to drive from the back to the front.

Weather forecast

Like last year, the 2021 edition could see rain during the race weekend in Turkey. According to Weather.com, Friday will be around 22 degrees, cloudy with some sun and the chance of rain is only 24 percent. However, this will increase from Saturday onwards. Then real showers are expected and the chance of rain is no less than 77 percent.

The temperature is expected to remain around 22 degrees on Saturday, but it will drop to 20 degrees on Sunday. The chance of rain also decreases to 56 per cent, with rain showers in the morning. It will be a good test for the circuit if the asphalt is really better than last year.

Expectations for the Turkish GP

Although Formula 1 and the organisation claim that the circuit has been improved to have more grip, it will not be a circuit with a lot of grip. This means, especially in the technical sector, that the mechanical grip of the car is essential. This is where Red Bull has a huge advantage over Mercedes, whereas Mercedes benefit from the long straights where a lot of power is needed.

You could say that in dry conditions, the two teams will not differ much and it will be a question of who can tune his car best. If it does rain though then Red Bull will have the edge. In Belgium, we saw that the RB16B, especially in Verstappen's hands, is much better on the road than the W12.

If it rains Mercedes might also choose to give Hamilton his new engine and thus get a grid penalty. In that case, it will be up to Verstappen to win the race and hope that Hamilton doesn't pull the same stunt by getting on the podium as Verstappen did in Russia.

Schedule for the 2021 Turkish Grand Prix

Friday

First free practice: 09:30-10:30

Second free practice: 13:00-14:00

Saturday

Third free practice: 10:00-11:00

Qualification: 13:00-14:00

Sunday

Race: 13:00-15:00