Is it worrying that 'Ferrari leader' Leclerc is only matching Sainz?

Charles Leclerc is having a tougher time this season than anyone might have expected. The Monegasque beat Sebastian Vettel in his first season at Ferrari and did the same in 2020. With the departure of the four-time world champion, the role as front-runner seemed up for grabs for Leclerc, but he is struggling more than expected with Carlos Sainz. Why is Leclerc having such a difficult year?

The duel at Ferrari

The best measure of a Formula One driver is his teammate. Because every car is different in F1, it is very difficult to compare drivers with each other. The only way to do that is if they are on the same team because then the cars are pretty much the same. Last week at GPblog we already listed the data of all the teams, of which the duel with Ferrari was the most striking. For the sake of completeness we have listed the data of that duel below:

Drivers: Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz

Race duel: 7-5

Points: 104-112.5

Qualifying duel: 10-5

Average qualifying difference: 0.110s in favour of Leclerc

If you look at Saturday there doesn't seem to be much going on. On Saturday, Leclerc won ten of the fifteen qualifying sessions. He also knows how to make a nice difference on average. On average the two are 0.110s apart, in Leclerc's favour. Not a huge difference as Leclerc had against Vettel in 2020 (0.487s), but still a good margin.

Sainz makes a step on Saturday

It's not the margin you could expect beforehand, though. Leclerc is an acknowledged qualifying beast. He was able to impress with his fast laps in qualifying, where he can still learn a thing or two about racecraft on Sunday. With Sainz joining Ferrari, Leclerc should have created a bigger gap.

Sainz is not a driver who depends on his Saturday. The Spaniard is a solid racer, who makes the difference on Sunday by being consistent. The fact that in his first year at Ferrari he can already stay so close to Leclerc on Saturdays is therefore worrying. Especially when you consider that Lando Norris won the qualifying duel from the Spaniard in his debut year in Formula 1, and was also too fast for him on Saturday in 2020.

Still, Leclerc manages to win this duel, so there's no need to press the alarm button on the basis of that data just yet. However, that is the case when you look at Sunday's data. In the race duel, Leclerc is only just ahead of the Spaniard and in points, Sainz is even ahead. Not many people expected this.

The biggest challenge for Leclerc

For Leclerc, this might be his biggest challenge so far in Formula 1. That might sound crazy after beating a four-time world champion in his first two years at Ferrari, but even Lance Stroll can stay close to Vettel. So you can start wondering how good Vettel really was in those last two years at Ferrari?

Vettel is not the type of driver who can make things difficult for Leclerc. Vettel is not a driver who is known for his consistency. He's always been fast over a single lap and could do great races from the lead, but under pressure and in duels he was more likely to get into trouble. Leclerc is younger, more talented and even faster over a lap, so Vettel's strength has been quickly eroded.

What is difficult for young talent is consistency. Max Verstappen struggled against Daniel Ricciardo in his first two years at Red Bull Racing, not necessarily because the Australian was so much faster, but more because his experience helped him string together the results. Verstappen needed to gain some experience to make that happen too. He finally managed to do that in 2018, after which Ricciardo felt the pinch and left.

The character of a racer

Sainz is a remarkable challenge for Leclerc in that respect. Sainz doesn't have a whole lot more experience in Formula 1, nor a great CV, but Sainz's characteristics as a driver make him a huge challenge for Leclerc. Sainz has shown since his first races that he rarely makes big mistakes and therefore will always score points for his team in the standings.

That's the problem Leclerc is facing at the moment. It is clear to everyone that Leclerc has more talent and speed than Sainz. Leclerc impressed with a great qualifying in Belgium in the rain and he drove to a great second place during the British Grand Prix. However, there are too many ups and downs in the Monegasque's performance.

Who will join Verstappen?

This year, however, will help the Monegasque to grow further. He has already shown in several seasons that he has the speed to compete at the top. If he can rise to Sainz's challenge and win, then with the right equipment he will be able to lead Ferrari to a world title.

For now, Leclerc must look from the shadows cast by his contemporaries. George Russell and Lando Norris are stealing the show at the moment, but for Russell, it's also true that he hasn't had a consistent opponent yet. He too will have to deal with that kind of learning curve at Mercedes.

We have an interesting crop of talents with Verstappen, Norris, Russell and Leclerc. Verstappen is already in his title fight and is already further along in his development than the others, but it will be interesting to see how these other guys manage to develop. We saw with Verstappen how fast it can go, so who knows these other guys might also have a shot at a title soon.