'What will happen if Hamilton quits and Verstappen isn't available?'

With expiring contracts for Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas and George Russell, Mercedes has it all figured out for 2022, but is the situation as ideal as it seems?

At the end of 2021, the contracts of Hamilton, Bottas and Russell all expire, and that means that Mercedes can re-fill the line-up for 2022. With completely different regulations the team will not want to choose a completely different line-up, but they do expect Russell to be promoted by now.

Promotion for Russell

''But for Mercedes, this would be the best way: match Hamilton and say Russell together and for the first season give Hamilton number one status. Then allow them to be equal for the next couple of years, then allow Russell to take over that status – as long as he’s capable of it. Then comes in the new driver, whoever that is, to replace Hamilton when he retires'', says Gary Anderson at The Race. He is joined by his colleague.

''The most logical next step in Mercedes’ line-up would be to place Russell alongside Hamilton for a year. Russell wouldn’t take long to get up to speed – Charles Leclerc showed us that blueprint at Ferrari in 2019 – but it’s unlikely that any competitive tension would spiral out of control immediately. Pairing Russell with Hamilton would give Mercedes a clear idea of if the current Williams driver has what it takes to lead the team to more glory. Then it could decide what sort of team-mate it needs to find for him once Hamilton has left'', says Glenn Freeman.

Danger to Mercedes

However, there is also a danger in the expiring contracts. Should Hamilton decide to leave at the end of 2021, Mercedes will be left with a line-up of Bottas and Russell, neither of whom have proven they can lead a team to the title. Max Verstappen would then be the most suitable candidate, but what if he is not viable?

''The interesting question is what happens in a scenario where Hamilton walks away and Verstappen definitely isn’t available. Then it would be left with a choice of a Russell/Bottas combination or looking further afield for a replacement for the latter. That’s a scenario Mercedes will not want to face heading into the all-important 2022 season,'' Edd Straw concludes.