Is Mercedes really as bad as everyone thinks? 'Fastest time in the longrun'

After the winter test in Bahrain everyone points at Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen as the favourites for 2021. Mercedes did not perform as well as usual, but was it really as bad as it seems?

Mercedes has dominated Formula 1 for the past seven years. Since the hybrid era, Mercedes has had a huge lead and has never given it away. The German team had some problems in Bahrain though. On day one of testing the car was in the garage for a long time due to a broken gearbox, and on the track the Mercedes seemed almost impossible to drive.

Red Bull the best

The question is whether Mercedes are really in trouble, or whether their dominance over the last few years has made them more alert to any mistakes. If you look at the data of Formula1.com. If you look at the data from the Mercedes test, it seems to be not so bad how bad Mercedes is doing after the test prior to the 2021 Formula 1 season.

Based on the winter test Formula1.com was able to create two graphs. The first is about the 'Short Pace', or the short runs of the teams. There Red Bull Racing is on top, and the gap to Mercedes and McLaren with respectively 0.56s and 0.59s is considerable. Aston Martin, Alpine and AlphaTauri follow within a second, with Alfa Romeo, Ferrari and Haas having to concede even more. Williams leaves the biggest gap at 1.83s.

How bad is Mercedes really?

However, if we look at the 'Long Pace', the roles are reversed. Indeed, with a good longrun on Sunday, Mercedes top this table, with a lead of 0.39s over Red Bull Racing. Aston Martin, McLaren and Alpine follow within a second, Ferrari, AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo are within two seconds and Williams and Haas lose more than two seconds.

The car may not look so good on the track, and there may be some problems with the gearbox, but the car has not suddenly become sluggish. Mercedes will need to spend the next two weeks figuring out how to make the car go faster on Saturday so that it doesn't have to chase Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez on Sunday.