Monaco GP: Why Aston Martin have the best chance to break Red Bull's streak

Fernando Alonso has highlighted the Monaco Grand Prix as the most likely event where his 33rd Formula 1 victory can finally be achieved. Will Alonso and Aston Martin be able to topple Max Verstappen, or will it be another dominating Red Bull performance in the streets of Monaco? Here's why Aston Martin have a good chance this weekend. 

Alonso has been one of the most consistent performers during the 2023 Formula 1 season. The Spaniard is back at the front of the grid at the age of 41. In July, Alonso will turn 42. Aston Martin don't feel like they will be able to challenge for the Formula 1 World Championship until they join forces with Honda for the new engine regulations in 2026. It seems extremely unlikely that Alonso will stay in F1 in his mid-40s, but if anyone can do it, then the two-time World Champion is your strongest bet. 

For now, Aston Martin are focusing on continuing their drastic upward trend. So far, Alonso has been on the podium in four out of five Grands Prix. He missed out to Charles Leclerc by around one second in Azerbaijan to complete a clean sweep of five consecutive P3 finishes. This result still puts a smile on Alonso's face, but at some point, he will get bored. Alonso earmarked Monaco as the first venue to advance from P3. 

Slow speed around Monaco

Monaco is packed with very slow corners. In fact, it's hard to find a medium-speed corner, let alone a fast one. This specific characteristic falls directly into the hands of Aston Martin and Alonso. The 2023 season is now five races old, and that has already produced some interesting data that supports this point. Over the winter, Aston Martin drastically changed their car, and slow-speed corners are an apparent strength. The first signs of this came in qualifying for the Bahrain Grand Prix. 

Alonso is only fastest in four small zones when placing all of the top five fastest qualifiers onto the same map. The entry to turn one, turn eight, turn 10 and exit of turn 11. The first three areas are all slow-speed corners, with turn 11 being a slow-medium-speed corner. The telemetry tells us why when zooming in on turn one. 

All of these speeds were taken at the same point on the track. As shown, Alonso can carry a faster speed for longer. A similar data set is recorded at turn 10, as shown below. During the Bahrain Grand Prix, Alonso made a very impressive overtake on Lewis Hamilton during the turn 9/10 sequence, once again proving the strength of the Aston Martin and Alonso's knowledge to use it to his advantage. 

During the Azerbaijan Grand Prix qualifying session, the castle section also produces the same data points. This section of track is probably the most Monaco-esque on the calendar. It's a key aspect of Aston Martin's performance during the 2023 Formula 1 season, and they will hope to use this strength to the maximum. It is also worth highlighting that Ferrari are ahead of Red Bull more often than not in this department. This is further enhanced by Red Bull's drought of pole positions in Monaco: it goes back to Daniel Ricciardo in 2018. 

Of course, Red Bull will make changes to their car. They will bring track-specific car parts to help them in the slow-speed corners. But Aston Martin have the advantage going into the race weekend, who will also do the same. It will be interesting to see whether this remains the case during free practice on Friday. 

Other helpful data points? 

More often than not, Alonso performs well in Monaco. It's not a track everyone enjoys, but the Spaniard has found success. He won the event in 2006 and 2007, as well as two consecutive podiums for Ferrari in 2011 and 2012. Even when McLaren were performing badly, Alonso managed to finish 5th and help make it McLaren's joint-best points-scoring race of that season. Though Alonso and Jenson Button were helped by seven DNFs and two heavy penalties. Alonso also finished in P7 last year. As a result, Alonso only enjoyed five better results throughout the season. 

Based on the data above, Alonso and Lance Stroll could be the favourites to take pole. However, hanging onto it is another question. Qualifying is crucial in Monaco, but it's not the most important of the season. Only 44% of pole sitters have gone on to win the event, which doesn't sit near the top compared to other circuits on the current calendar. Barcelona is well ahead at 72%. And it's not a modern thing either: the pole sitter hasn't won in Monaco since 2019. Out of the last 10 races, half were won by the pole sitter. 

However, Monaco often comes down to strategy and pitstop speed. Aston Martin's strategy has been strong this year. The same can't be said about the pit crew. Since Bahrain, Aston Martin have only made it into the top ten quickest pitstop lists twice (10th in Miami and 10th in Jeddah). This could be a potential downfall, especially when their rivals are the teams towards the top of these lists. Red Bull have also dominated the race pace so far this season.