Wolff is right: Red Bull Racing cannot be caught up in 2023

Red Bull Racing once again failed to disguise how dominant they are at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. They succeeded in Bahrain and Australia due to bad luck for Sergio Perez, but when Max Verstappen and his teammate chase each other, it really shows that the competition has no chance in 2023.

Red Bull tries to play hide and seek

In Bahrain, Red Bull was able to play hide and seek. Competitors already suspected that the RB19 could go faster than Verstappen had driven it and those fears were confirmed in Saudi Arabia. Things were never exciting in Bahrain as Perez was stuck behind Charles Leclerc for a long time. Once he passed that one, Verstappen had already disappeared on the horizon.

In Australia too, Red Bull was able to keep up appearances. Verstappen drove away from the front step by step, but with Lewis Hamilton behind him, he never really had to accelerate. The Limburger only had to drive slightly faster than his former rival. It is only when the two Red Bulls drive close together that you really see how fast Adrian Newey's car can go.

During the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix, this was visible for the first time. Then I analysed laps 25 to 36. That was when Verstappen got behind Perez again after an overtaking race and went all out to catch up with his teammate. Whereas Verstappen drove 1:32.5 at that stage, Fernando Alonso as number three did not get beyond 1:33.6. The Ferrari and Mercedes drivers lost even more per lap.

Wolff sees dominant RB19

In Azerbaijan, we see that this ranking is far from changing. After the GP, Toto Wolff informed GPblog that Red Bull is currently on a level of its own. Aston Martin, Ferrari and its Mercedes are behind Red Bull, but close together. In this, Wolff is right.

Christian Horner is convinced the competition will come back this season. The team boss of the Austrian formation continues to stress that it is a marathon season and far from a done deal. Anyone looking at the numbers, however, knows that is probably not true.

Verstappen puts Perez under pressure

Even in Azerbaijan, a weekend where Red Bull has not had time to find an optimal setup for star driver Verstappen due to the sprint race format, it manages to impress. Once again, it is Verstappen chasing his teammate and the Red Bulls impress most when they go all out for victory from lap 14 to lap 36. After that, Verstappen seems to let it go. He has hit the wall a couple of times by then, struggles a bit with his balance and has already seen the gap increase to three seconds. Yet his foot never completely goes off the gas.

The 23 laps where they do go full throttle are interesting to compare with the nearest competitor. This race, that is Leclerc. The Ferrari driver actually managed to win both qualifying sessions and with a P2 in the F1 Sprint, he recorded a surprising result. If Verstappen's RB19 is in one piece, however, there appears to be no powder against it for Leclerc.

Verstappen does not even wait for DRS activation after the restart and passes Leclerc straight into turn three. The moment Verstappen passes the Monegasque, the gap between Leclerc and Perez is two seconds. In the first lap that follows, both Bulls immediately pull open the throttle. Verstappen drives a 1:45.6 on lap fifteen, Perez a 1:45.8. With a 1:46.7, Leclerc sees his rivals disappear on the horizon.

In the laps that follow, things go fast. Perez and Verstappen drive on the limit, taking turns to see who holds the fastest lap. In the 23 laps that follow, the pace keeps going up as the cars get lighter and lighter. At the end of this block, Verstappen and Perez drive between 1:44.8 and 1:45.3.

Overall, Leclerc's deficit increases from 2 seconds midway through lap 14, to 19.4 seconds at the end of lap 36. A difference of a whopping 17.4 seconds over 23 laps. Leclerc is thus losing 0.843s per lap! Alonso riding a similar pace to Leclerc, Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton eventually finishing 46 seconds off the Red Bull duo in the 38 laps since the restart.

F1 championship still exciting because of Perez

As loud as they want to keep shouting it at Red Bull, the RB19 designed by Newey and his team is far too good for the competition. In qualifying, the competition still has a chance, but in the race, no team can push the tyres as hard as the Red Bull drivers. At a track like Monaco, Ferrari might still have a chance if Leclerc can keep the door shut after a spectacular qualifying session, but even in the Principality it will be difficult to stop this difference in pace.

Those who say the season is still long are right, but a gap of almost a second per lap is immense in F1. Perhaps there are examples from the distant past where it has been achieved, but with the budget cap and restrictions on the use of wind tunnel and CFD, it makes it almost impossible to make such a big jump in such a short time. Mercedes may be coming up with updates, but Red Bull is not sitting still either.

In that respect, it is a triumph for the sport that Perez is able to offer so much resistance to his teammate at the moment. Of course the Mexican is all a bit off and Verstappen's best jobs are yet to come, but imagine if Verstappen had not had so much bad luck in the first races. Then, as Damon Hill said, we might as well have given the championship to Verstappen in advance. At least now it looks exciting.