Analysis | Alonso could challenge for pole, but Verstappen is scarily fast

Following the week that Formula 1 CEO Stefano Domenicalli caused a storm in a teacup by suggesting free practice sessions should be removed, the teams and drivers had very little meaningful running on the Friday before the Australian Grand Prix. But that doesn't prevent conclusions from being drawn. 

A GPS issue caused traffic problems, and a couple of red flags halted running in FP1. The second 60-minute period took place in wet conditions, and therefore long-run data either wasn't recorded by some teams or those who ran recorded non-relevant data for the rest of the weekend in Australia. There is some rain about in Melbourne on Saturday, but it isn't expected to have an effect on qualifying. Sunshine is forecast for Sunday's race. 

Fastest sector times

 

 

 

 

 

View this post on Instagram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A post shared by GPblog.com (@gpblog_com)

The style of the circuit in sector two is comparable with Saudi Arabia, and therefore it is not a surprise to see Max Verstappen's Red Bull set the fastest sector time. The Red Bull car has an impressive straight-line speed. This was their biggest strength during the 2022 season and is what contributed to Red Bull's stronger performance on race day compared to qualifying. 

Sectors one and three are a little bit twistier, with some medium and slow-speed corners. This is more reminiscent of the technical sector two in Bahrain. It has to be noted that in sector three, both Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso are closer to Red Bull's fastest time. 

This was expected, especially for the Aston Martin. Alonso's car seems to have a very impressive cornering ability. This was showcased in Bahrain sector two, most notably with some very impressive overtakes during the Grand Prix. This puts Alonso in the picture for pole position, though he'd hope to get much closer in sector one on Saturday. During a single lap, cars spend more time in the corners, and that is why it is advantageous. 

Top speeds

The top speeds further enhance the straight-line performance of the Red Bull car. Perez and Verstappen are significantly ahead of the rest of the field. On circuits like Baku and Monza, Red Bull might just be untouchable. 

A difference of 7km/h to Mercedes, and a difference of 9km/h to Ferrari is staggering. Even Aston Martin, who might be able to challenge Red Bull through the first and third sector, are 8km/h down on top speed. The difference is so staggering, that any advantage will be swallowed up on the straights. 

Zooming into the telemetry, and it's even more bad news for Ferrari and Aston Martin. Those two challengers are not coming off the throttle earlier than Verstappen. In fact, Verstappen is braking slightly earlier than both Leclerc and Alonso going into turn nine. The Spaniard is the last of the brakers, again highlighting the impressive nature of Aston Martin in the corners. 

Overall, it's Red Bull Racing's race to lose. There's a very small chance Alonso and Aston Martin will be able to provide a challenge in qualifying. Ferrari might come into the mix once the engines are turned up, but the staggering straight-line speed from Red Bull puts pay to almost all hope from the rest of the field even if fuel loads and engine modes are unknown.