McLaren back to square one and don't seem to realise it themselves

15th, 17th, 17th and a retirement. These are McLaren's deeply sad results after the first two Grands Prix in 2023. Where did it all go wrong for the Woking-based team and is there any prospect of more?

Ron Dennis saw where it went wrong

In 2015, McLaren decided to change tack. Ron Dennis had seen enough. The former team boss and part owner of the Woking-based team saw the deal with Mercedes getting worse and worse for McLaren. After years of success, Mercedes' factory team now became more important and McLaren became second best. A new world title required an exclusive deal with a manufacturer.

It is not a crazy thought, because since 2000, only one title was won by a team that did not have such an exclusive deal: BrawnGP. That team was an exception in everything and, above all, appeared to be the only one that understood the 2009 regulations well. Combined with a fast engine from Mercedes, the Honda chassis was suddenly a rocket.

In the other 22 seasons, a team and a driver always won where a factory deal was present. Ferrari, Renault and Mercedes won titles as manufacturers, while McLaren (with Mercedes) and Red Bull Racing (first with Renault and then with Honda) also won titles as the main partner of an engine manufacturer.

However, after the title for McLaren in 2008, things went backwards for the Woking-based team. Mercedes came into the sport as a factory team in 2010 and so the focus was entirely on that team. McLaren could still buy an engine, but that engine was tuned to the car being developed in Brackley. The Woking-based team just had to build their own car around it.

Deal with Honda

Dennis knew you were not going to win a world title that way and opted for a new deal with Honda in 2015. McLaren and Honda had also been extremely successful working together between 1988 and 1992, but this new partnership was more difficult. Honda were two years behind the competition in developing an engine and that gap could not be easily bridged.

Whereas in 1995 McLaren wisely chose Mark Blundell and Mika Hakkinen, an experienced driver with no wins behind his name and a young talent, in 2015 McLaren made the mistake of appointing big names immediately at the start of the deal with Mercedes. Based on name and past results, Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button were appointed drivers. Big names, but with them come big expectations.

2015 went disastrously, but in 2016 the team recovered somewhat. The partnership collapsed in 2017, however, when the Honda engine failed a lot. The question, however, is whether the conclusion was not drawn too soon? It is easy to talk with hindsight, but how many new collaborations manage to be competitive after only three years?

Haughtiness from Brown and Alonso

Led by new boss Zak Brown, who had been instrumental in getting Dennis worked out of the team, and Alonso, Honda were shown the door. A mega deal was pushed aside to become a Renault customer again. Indeed, McLaren believed they had a car to compete for the world title, it just lacked a good engine.

In 2018, that turned out to be nothing more than self-confidence. McLaren were not at all as good as they thought and were back to square one with Renault. They found their way back to the sub-top (P3 in 2020 partly down to an under performing Ferrari), but with the new Mercedes deal since 2021, things have only gone downhill. In 2021 the team finished fourth, in 2022 fifth and this season currently in last place.

Most painful of all, McLaren are simply back to square one as a customer after such a tough period, while Red Bull Racing are laughing. The Austrians did see the potential in a factory deal with Honda and didn't even have to go through the tough years, McLaren had already done that. They immediately won the first race in 2019 and the first world title in 2021. Red Bull now seems unbeatable with an original Honda engine in the back of the car for the next few years, McLaren are on a hiatus.

For McLaren, the outlook is not particularly positive either. Indeed, from 2026 they will have to compete with as many as five factory teams: Red Bull/Ford, Mercedes, Ferrari, Alpine and Audi. Brown is said to have been in talks with Red Bull Powertrains about a possible engine deal, but that leaves it dependent as a customer. Surely history has shown that is not ideal.

In that respect, a return to Honda seems to be among the options, but something would have to happen for both parties. Whereas Red Bull already have an engine ready for 2026, Honda lost a lot of personnel to Red Bull Powertrains due to their departure from F1 and, despite a tender, have not yet started work on a new engine for 2026. Once again, then, they are starting from behind.

2026 is still a long way off, so they may still be able to catch up, but McLaren will also have to make some concessions for this deal. First of all, there will have to be an apology for the public humiliation in 2017, but also a look at current performance. After all, McLaren are not currently a top team in terms of performance.

Problems within McLaren

The team points to the prehistoric wind tunnel as the biggest point of improvement, but Aston Martin did not yet have that wind tunnel at their disposal either. Yet the other British marque now manages to compete at the front and achieve podiums, where McLaren dangles at the bottom. James Key and his technical team have failed. A new wind tunnel helps, but the people themselves need to deliver better results.

Besides the worrying talks with Red Bull about a customer deal and the disappointing performance of the technical team, there is more to criticise about choices made by McLaren. Why did Oscar Piastri have to be snatched away from Alpine? Was that really a prestige project by Brown, or was there an idea behind this?

After all, one wonders whether it makes sense for the team to bring in a great young talent when you already have a front-runner in place with Lando Norris. Norris will already be hesitant to stay longer because of McLaren's performance, but now that he is also being pressured internally to perform better, it is entirely questionable how he will feel. Surely it wouldn't have been that bad to keep Daniel Ricciardo by his side for one year, especially given that Ricciardo's contract now had to be bought out?

Piastri is a huge talent and any team would do well to bring him in, but you have to have a plan with him. At Alpine, he could have grown into a front-runner (as Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly certainly are not), at McLaren, alongside Norris, that remains to be seen. It will be at the expense of one of the two.

Zak Brown has done a lot of good for McLaren since his arrival, especially in terms of sponsorship. The car was completely empty at the start of 2015 and Brown has managed to tie all kinds of parties to the team. However, the sporting choices are questionable. Sending away Honda, Ricciardo and talk of a new customer deal for 2026 do not speak in his favour. It's a shame, because alongside Red Bull-Ford, Mercedes, Ferrari, Alpine and Audi, McLaren-Honda as a combination could also potentially be great for the sport. You just have to go through the sour apple. The question is whether Brown has the patience for that.