Analysis | Mercedes fastest in this area and are Ferrari sandbagging?

Red Bull Racing smashed the first day of the 2023 winter tests in Bahrain. Max Verstappen sat at the top of the timesheets and recorded the most laps. But what happens when we dive deeper into the fastest laps? Although it was only one day of testing and various modes remain unknown, there are interesting strengths and weaknesses on the cars. Have things changed during the winter?

Characteristics 

It's unfair to draw hard conclusions that are set in stone for the full year. But we can see some traits actually switch in 2023. Last year, Red Bull Racing were strong with straight-line speed, whilst Ferrari made most of their gains in the medium-speed corners. This was reflected in some of the results in the early part of the season with Verstappen winning in Saudi Arabia and Charles Leclerc taking control in Australia. 

Verstappen, Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton recorded the fastest times of the day for their respective teams. Comparing these three laps and we already see some interesting information. Down the home straight, Sainz was fastest by a long way. He reached a peak of 325km/h in comparison to Verstappen at 320km/h. Hamilton peaked at 314km/h suggesting Mercedes are still down on power. The engines are frozen, but changes can be made for reliability reasons which is something that plagued Ferrari. Hamilton stayed on the throttle at 100% a fraction longer and braked a fraction later than the others. This could be a sign of confidence and better handling, but it could also be a sign that Hamilton was pushing more to the maximum in the test compared to Sainz and Verstappen. 

These speed charts flipped through the corner. Hamilton was able to carry a tiny bit more speed through turn one. This pattern is replicated throughout the rest of the first sector. In the third [after turn 10] and fourth [after turn 13] straight on the circuit, Red Bull Racing become the fastest in a straight line. Meanwhile, Hamilton remained the fastest in turns four, eight, ten, 11, 13 and 14. It's a good indication that Mercedes are very quick in slow corners which is important because cars spend more time in the corners. 

Ferrari Sandbagging? 

Between turns 12 and 13, Hamilton and Verstappen were able to go flat-out and keep the throttle pinned. Whereas Sainz took his foot off the throttle quite significantly. He dropped down to 83% and he touched the brake. Was this a driver mistake? A correction? Or could it be a sign that Ferrari are sandbagging? Either way, Sainz had more lap time in his car even with these testing settings. During FP3 in 2022, Sainz kept the throttle pinned during this section and were Ferrari were known to be strongest in this department.

With Verstappen on top of all the other charts, it's probably not a surprise to see him at the top of the long-run charts. It's very difficult to measure the long-run pace during pre-season testing with various different test schedules being completed. But it seems as though Verstappen was averaging in the low 1:36s. Whereas Ferrari sat in the 1:37s.